All eyes are on Alcoa Corporation’s Q2 2025 earnings, set to be revealed on July 16, 2025. In the meantime, Zacks Investment Research has offered an early outlook, projecting the company’s revenue to reach USD 2.91 billion, reflecting a modest increase of 0.3 per cent from the same quarter in 2024. But the estimation on year-on-year movement says otherwise as Zacks estimates Alcoa to face a decline.
Zack’s estimation on Alcoa’s earning per share, on the other hand, shows it has decreased in the past 30 days, amounting to 30 cents. But if the figure is compared with the prior year's quarterly level, it represents an increase of 87.5 per cent. The company's four-quarter earnings show an average of 57.4 per cent, which is significantly higher than the estimate.
Supports gained for Alcoa's earnings in Q2 2025
- Increased demand for billets, rods and slabs in North America and Europe has the potential to benefit Alcoa
- The restart of the San Ciprian smelter alongside the increased aluminium price has also aided the company positively
- The company's partnerships and acquisitions are anticipated to have generated synergistic gains, contributing to higher revenue
- In March 2025, Alcoa entered a joint venture with IGNIS EQT, retaining 75 per cent equity and operational control of the San Ciprián site
- In August 2024, Alcoa's acquisition of Alumina Limited strengthened its global position as a pure-play upstream aluminium company
- Alcoa's expansion of smelter and refinery capacity likely contributed to its performance in the upcoming quarterly results
Q2 2025 earnings estimation vs Q2 2024 actual earnings
According to the report of Nasdaq, in 2024, Alcoa earned USD 1.90 billion in the third-party sales of the aluminium division. As per the estimate of Zacks Consensus for the firm's aluminium division, it is expected to have third-party sales worth USD 1.96 billion, indicating an increase of 3.2 per cent from the previous year.
From the same source, it has been established that the firm's total sales for the aluminium segment are pegged at USD 2.02 billion, indicating an increase by 6.3 per cent from the previous year's figure. The earnings in 2024, as per Nasdaq, the total earnings in the aluminium division stood at USD 1.90 billion.
Consensus marked the firm's alumina segment's third-party sales are pegged at USD 836 million, showing a decrease of 8.5 per cent from the previous year. In 2024, as issued by Nasdaq, the firm's third-party sales in the alumina segment were recorded at USD 914 million.
On the other hand, the total sales of the firm's alumina segment are set at USD 1.37 billion, showcasing a decline of 6.8 per cent from the year ago. In 2024, the same segment had the total sales of USD 1.47 billion.
Irrespective of the estimates revealing a strong economic health of the organisation, its alumina segment is deemed to have a weak performance due to the slow growth of bauxite in China, due to safety and environmental inspections. Additionally, the firm in the upcoming quarters may face significant challenges due to rising geopolitical risks as well as foreign exchange headwinds. With more substantial US dollars, Alcoa may face further issues in conducting overseas businesses.
Alcoa President and CEO William F. Oplinger stated, "During the first quarter, we maintained our pace of delivering on key operational and capital allocation objectives, including forming the joint venture to support our San Ciprián operations and repositioning debt in Australia. A positive aluminium market led to stronger results for the first quarter, while we continued to focus on safety, stability, and operational excellence amidst economic uncertainty."
Reflection on Alcoa's Q1 2025 earnings
As per the company's annual report, in Q1 2025, Alcoa faced around USD 20 million in tariff costs on Canadian aluminium imports after the 25 per cent US Section 232 tariff took effect on March 12, 2025.
The organisation further reported a net income of USD 548 million or USD 2.07 per share, driven by higher aluminium prices, benefits from lower alumina costs and increased bauxite volumes and pricing, partially offset by lower shipments and tariff costs. This further reflects the absence of a prior USD 82 million restructuring charge and a USD 51 million currency loss from Q4 2024.
Alcoa's share price
As of July 15, 2025, the firm's share price opened at USD 30 and closed at USD 29.79. Week-on-week analysis shows that on July 8, 2025, the share amounted to USD 30.51, showing a decline of 1.7 per cent in a week. Month-on-month analysis shows that on June 15, the firm's price stood at USD 29.01, showing an increase of 3.4 per cent.
Concerning the year-to-date analysis, Alcoa's share price at the beginning of 2025 stood at USD 37.99, representing a decline of 21.03 per cent. On July 16, 2024, the corporation's share price was USD 38.66, which shows a decline this year by 22.4 per cent.
With the rising earnings in Q2 2025 but declining share price, what does this indicate about the company's forthcoming quarterly earnings?
All eyes are on Alcoa Corporation’s Q2 2025 earnings, set to be revealed on July 16, 2025. In the meantime, Zacks Investment Research has offered an early outlook, projecting the company’s revenue to reach USD 2.91 billion, reflecting a modest increase of 0.3 per cent from the same quarter in 2024. But the estimation on year-on-year movement says otherwise as Zacks estimates Alcoa to face a decline.
Zack’s estimation on Alcoa’s earning per share, on the other hand, shows it has decreased in the past 30 days, amounting to 30 cents. But if the figure is compared with the prior year's quarterly level, it represents an increase of 87.5 per cent. The company's four-quarter earnings show an average of 57.4 per cent, which is significantly higher than the estimate.
Supports gained for Alcoa's earnings in Q2 2025
- Increased demand for billets, rods and slabs in North America and Europe has the potential to benefit Alcoa
- The restart of the San Ciprian smelter alongside the increased aluminium price has also aided the company positively
- The company's partnerships and acquisitions are anticipated to have generated synergistic gains, contributing to higher revenue
- In March 2025, Alcoa entered a joint venture with IGNIS EQT, retaining 75 per cent equity and operational control of the San Ciprián site
- In August 2024, Alcoa's acquisition of Alumina Limited strengthened its global position as a pure-play upstream aluminium company
- Alcoa's expansion of smelter and refinery capacity likely contributed to its performance in the upcoming quarterly results
Q2 2025 earnings estimation vs Q2 2024 actual earnings
According to the report of Nasdaq, in 2024, Alcoa earned USD 1.90 billion in the third-party sales of the aluminium division. As per the estimate of Zacks Consensus for the firm's aluminium division, it is expected to have third-party sales worth USD 1.96 billion, indicating an increase of 3.2 per cent from the previous year.
From the same source, it has been established that the firm's total sales for the aluminium segment are pegged at USD 2.02 billion, indicating an increase by 6.3 per cent from the previous year's figure. The earnings in 2024, as per Nasdaq, the total earnings in the aluminium division stood at USD 1.90 billion.
Consensus marked the firm's alumina segment's third-party sales are pegged at USD 836 million, showing a decrease of 8.5 per cent from the previous year. In 2024, as issued by Nasdaq, the firm's third-party sales in the alumina segment were recorded at USD 914 million.
On the other hand, the total sales of the firm's alumina segment are set at USD 1.37 billion, showcasing a decline of 6.8 per cent from the year ago. In 2024, the same segment had the total sales of USD 1.47 billion.
Irrespective of the estimates revealing a strong economic health of the organisation, its alumina segment is deemed to have a weak performance due to the slow growth of bauxite in China, due to safety and environmental inspections. Additionally, the firm in the upcoming quarters may face significant challenges due to rising geopolitical risks as well as foreign exchange headwinds. With more substantial US dollars, Alcoa may face further issues in conducting overseas businesses.
Alcoa President and CEO William F. Oplinger stated, "During the first quarter, we maintained our pace of delivering on key operational and capital allocation objectives, including forming the joint venture to support our San Ciprián operations and repositioning debt in Australia. A positive aluminium market led to stronger results for the first quarter, while we continued to focus on safety, stability, and operational excellence amidst economic uncertainty."
Reflection on Alcoa's Q1 2025 earnings
As per the company's annual report, in Q1 2025, Alcoa faced around USD 20 million in tariff costs on Canadian aluminium imports after the 25 per cent US Section 232 tariff took effect on March 12, 2025.
The organisation further reported a net income of USD 548 million or USD 2.07 per share, driven by higher aluminium prices, benefits from lower alumina costs and increased bauxite volumes and pricing, partially offset by lower shipments and tariff costs. This further reflects the absence of a prior USD 82 million restructuring charge and a USD 51 million currency loss from Q4 2024.
Alcoa's share price
As of July 15, 2025, the firm's share price opened at USD 30 and closed at USD 29.79. Week-on-week analysis shows that on July 8, 2025, the share amounted to USD 30.51, showing a decline of 1.7 per cent in a week. Month-on-month analysis shows that on June 15, the firm's price stood at USD 29.01, showing an increase of 3.4 per cent.
Concerning the year-to-date analysis, Alcoa's share price at the beginning of 2025 stood at USD 37.99, representing a decline of 21.03 per cent. On July 16, 2024, the corporation's share price was USD 38.66, which shows a decline this year by 22.4 per cent.
With the rising earnings in Q2 2025 but declining share price, what does this indicate about the company's forthcoming quarterly earnings?
Also read: Alcoa resumes San Ciprián smelter restart, facing economic loss first
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