US strikes bilateral deal with Southeast Asia! EU exports face the heat, India watches keenly

As the United States deepens its bilateral trade ties with Indonesia and Vietnam, a lion’s share of European exports to these Southeast Asian economies faces a potential risk of trade dislodgment. According to a recent media analysis, around 10 per cent of the European Union’s total exports to these two nations are now under competitive threat due to newly signed preferential trade agreements between Washington and the two southeastern nations.
Scale of the potential disruption
In 2023, the EU exported EUR 11.4 billion of goods to Vietnam (and imported EUR 47.7 billion), while trade with Indonesia stood at EUR 11.3 billion of export goods (and import of EUR 18.4 billion), as per Eurostat data. Based on a modelling assumption, if 10-12 per cent of that is at risk, European exporters could be facing a revenue exposure between EUR 6.18 billion and EUR 7.41 billion over the next 12-18 months, particularly in sectors where tariff advantages now tilt toward the US.
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