US on track for $300 billion in tariff revenue by year-end, says Treasury Secretary

The United States is on course to collect as much as USD 300 billion in tariff revenue by the end of 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed, highlighting the scale of President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade strategy. Speaking during a White House Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Bessent reported that the US has already secured approximately USD 100 billion in tariff income this year, with revenues accelerating due to sweeping new import duties imposed in the second quarter.

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According to Reuters, the latest measures include a near-universal 10 per cent tariff on all US imports and increased rates on steel, aluminium and automobiles. “So we could expect that that could be well over USD 300 billion by the end of the year,” Bessent said, outlining the administration’s expectations for tariff-driven income. A Treasury spokesperson later clarified that the USD 300 billion target refers to the calendar year ending December 31, 2025, rather than the US government’s fiscal year ending September 30, as previously reported.

This projection comes amid a sharp rise in tariff collections. In May alone, the Treasury reported gross customs duties of USD 22.8 billion, nearly four times higher than the USD 6.2 billion collected in the same month of 2024. Cumulatively, total customs duty collections for the first eight months of fiscal 2025 reached USD 86.1 billion, while in the first five months of the 2025 calendar year, the US collected USD 63.4 billion in tariff revenue. Bessent also pointed to a Congressional Budget Office estimate projecting tariff revenues of around USD 2.8 trillion over the next decade but suggested that even this figure might be conservative, adding, “We think it’s probably low,” according to Reuters.

President Trump’s trade strategy is set to escalate further with an August 1 deadline for imposing higher “reciprocal” tariff rates on nearly all US trading partners. Trump signalled that negotiations in the next three weeks could allow countries to secure more favourable terms if they offer concessions. “The big money will start coming in on August 1. I think it was made clear today by the letters that were sent out yesterday and today,” Trump said at the Cabinet meeting.

During the same meeting, Trump confirmed a new 50 per cent tariff on copper imports, describing it as necessary to strengthen US production of the critical metal used in electric vehicles, power grids, military equipment, and consumer electronics. Bloomberg reported that the copper tariff announcement has already shaken commodity markets, with US copper futures surging to record highs.

Trump also indicated plans for additional tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, further expanding his administration’s efforts to reshape America’s industrial policy.

While this expansive tariff agenda has become a hallmark of Trump’s economic policy in 2025, aimed at strengthening domestic manufacturing and reducing dependence on foreign suppliers, it carries risks. Economists warn that higher tariffs could raise costs for American businesses and consumers, particularly in industries reliant on imported raw materials and components. Though the influx of tariff revenue may help narrow budget deficits in the short term, experts caution that sustained large-scale duties could slow economic growth, fuel inflation and strain relations with key allies.

With the August 1 deadline approaching, global trading partners are watching closely to see whether Washington’s tough stance will lead to breakthroughs in negotiations or trigger a full-scale tariff confrontation.