Uptick in LME aluminium still not a cause for cheer

LME aluminium has finally reversed its downtrend- but will this uptick extend into a sustained uptrend? Unlikely- suggests technical analysis by market experts. The lightmetal which had touched the monthly low of US$1,855 per tonne earlier this week rose to US$1,886 per tonne after night trading on Wednesday, June 29, up 1.34 per cent from its previous close of US$1,861.50 per tonne.

Shanghai Metals Market observes that LME aluminium will struggle between the 20-day and 10-day moving averages and range at US$1,889-1,904 per tonne on Thursday, June 29.

Reuters’ technical analysis suggests that LME aluminium may retrace to as low as US$1,756 per tonne over the next three months.

As on June 28, LME official cash buyer aluminium price stands at US$1,885.50 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price is US$1,886 per tonne, 3M buyer price is US$1,892 per tonne, 3M seller price is US$1,893 per tonne, Dec1 buyer price is US$1,927 per tonne, and Dec1 seller price is US$1,932 per tonne. The current LME official Opening Stock of aluminium is estimated at 1416825 tonnes, total Live Warrant is 1062075 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 354750 tonnes.

LME aluminium premiums remain unchanged across major regions today. As on June 27, LME Aluminium US Premium stands at US$190, LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium is US$80, LME Aluminium East-Asia Premium is US$105, and LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium remains unchanged at US$15 (per tonne).

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The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has risen to US$2,035 per tonne on Thursday, June 29, up 0.94 per cent from the previous day’s benchmark price of US$2,016 per tonne.

At Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the most active aluminium future contract SHFE 1708 aluminium opened at RMB 13,950 per tonne on Wednesday, June 28 and then rose marginally to settle at RMB 13,955 per tonne. SMM predicts that SHFE 1708 aluminium will test resistance at RMB 14,000 per tonne range at RMB 13,900-14,010 per tonne on Thursday, June 29.  

Spot aluminium in east China market is expected to trade at discounts of RMB 160-120 per tonne over SHFE 1707 aluminium contract on Thursday.

China Aluminum International Trading Co. (Chalco Trading) continued to hike aluminium prices it offered in major markets today after the price hike yesterday. The revised prices are as follows:

Unit: RMB per tonne

The market focus will be on the number of US initial jobless claims last week, annualized Q1 GDP and PCE goods price index and eurozone June industrial and economic sentiment index and CCI on Thursday, SMM said.