According to the Shanghai Metals Market, China’s metallurgical-grade alumina production in January 2024 (31 days) saw a 1.1 per cent dip month-on-month at 6.72 million tonnes. But on a year-on-year basis, the output grew by 5.5 per cent from 6.37 million tonnes.
The daily average production stood at 216,800 tonnes per day in January 2024, with a production capacity of 100 million tonnes, and an operating capacity of 79.14 million tonnes. According to SMM, the national operating rate was 79.1 per cent.
As per the SMM’s forecast for January 2024, the operating capacity stood 1.36 million tonnes behind the estimated capacity of 80.50 million tonnes, while the daily production was 3,700 tonnes less than the prediction.
Alumina output across Chinese provinces
In Shanxi, the operating rate of alumina refineries was 66.7 per cent in January 2024, down by 2.5 per cent from December 2023, attributed to production cuts at refineries due to the deepening tightness of bauxite supply. As production was reduced, the operating rate decreased month-on-month.
In Henan, the province’s operating rate also decreased month-on-month by 5.2 per cent to 56.7 per cent in January’24, as some refineries in Sanmenxia area reduced or suspended production due to the same cause. Some refineries were also ordered to cut production because of heavy pollution weather warning restrictions. But later on, in February, they resumed operations as the weather warning eased.
In Guizhou province, on the other hand, the operating rate increased by 1.5 per cent month-on-month to 86 per cent in January, with the capacity growing by 100,000 tonnes. In Hebei, the output remained stable, with the operating rate slightly up by 0.8 per cent M-o-M, returning to 88.3 per cent.
In Guangxi again, the operating rate dropped slightly by 0.8 per cent from December to 84.1 per cent.
Forecast for January 2024
SMM research estimates that currently suspended mines in Shanxi and Henan have no plans to resume production in February 2024. The shortage of bauxite supply is likely to continue, hindering some production. Therefore, the operating rate would remain low. Even the refineries in Guangxi that have suppressed production would be unable to return to full operation in the short term. However, the shortfalls would most likely be offset by the refineries in Shandong and Henan that were had to cut production in January but have returned to normal operations now.
SMM predicts the daily average alumina production in February 2024 will be 217,400 tonnes per day, with total operating production capacity of about 79.34 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 0.25 per cent.
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