The persistent supply chain concerns owing to growing demand in tandem with improved industrial operating rates have reportedly driven aluminium prices up by 0.64 per cent, reaching INR 261.35 (USD 2.94). Limited Chinese aluminium output coupled with supply chain disruptions in Guinea have suppressed the productivity of aluminium smelters, resulting in price hike.
China’s manufacturing PMI remained below the expansion threshold at 49.8, which shows a subdued industrial momentum. Nevertheless, production limits continue to underpin prices, as the country’s aluminium output nears its annual cap of 45 million tonnes, restricting further supply growth.
Meanwhile, the suspension of Guinea Alumina’s mining licence has raised concerns over potential disruptions to bauxite shipments, particularly for major producers such as Emirates Global Aluminium.
Global aluminium supply remains constrained amidst a demand surge
According to data published by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global aluminium market recorded a deficit of 119,900 tonnes in July and nearly 985,300 tonnes between January and July 2025.
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Global primary aluminium production grew modestly by 0.9 per cent year-on-year in August to 6.277 million tonnes, while China’s output increased by 1.22 per cent over the same period. Trade data showed that China exported 542,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium in July, and imports surged 12.9 per cent year-on-year in August to 320,000 tonnes, highlighting resilient domestic consumption.
Technical outlook: bullish momentum continues
From a technical perspective, aluminium remains under the fresh buying pressures with open interest rising by 2.55 per cent to 4590 lots. The metal has support at USD 3.11, below which it could test USD 3.08, while resistance is seen at USD 3.17. A break above this level could drive prices toward USD 3.19, signalling continued bullish momentum in the short term.
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