SMM Aluminum Price Forecast

SHFE aluminum prices climbed at first but fell later last week, with prices falling by over 4%. Aluminum was still the best performer of base metals in the SHFE market, with SHFE aluminum making gains in early week trading and with SHFE 1110 aluminum contract prices hitting a high of RMB 18,645/mt. However, SHFE 1110 aluminum contract prices fell 2% on Thursday due to growing short momentum, with prices declining by the daily price limit in only 10 minutes after opening on Friday, down 4.01%. Finally, SHFE 1110 aluminum contract prices closed at RMB 17,485/mt.

SMM spot aluminum prices rose at first but fell later last week. Eased cash flow pressures at the beginning of August and strong SHFE aluminum prices helped push up spot aluminum prices to a high of RMB 18,660/mt early last week, breaking the record high set on July 28th. Cargo-holders were eager to sell goods at higher prices, but downstream buying interest was low given falling downstream orders and current high aluminum prices. Lower SHFE aluminum prices late last week depressed market optimism, with spot aluminum prices trimming previous gains, especially on Friday when SHFE current-month aluminum contract prices fell by almost the daily limit, which caused spot aluminum prices to fall below RMB 18,000/mt. Mixed offers in spot aluminum markets caused suppliers and buyers to stay on the sidelines.