Rising LME futures & supply crunch propel India’s imported aluminium scrap prices upward

Imported aluminium scrap prices in India increased slightly, bolstered by the rising trend in LME (London Metal Exchange) futures prices and persistent supply shortages. As reported, the three-month LME price stood at around $2,375 per tonne, marking a 2.4 per cent increase compared to the previous week's price of $2,319 per tonne. Concurrently, stocks were noted at 554,475 tonnes, indicating a 1 per cent decline week-over-week.

According to assessments provided by BigMint, aluminium imported scrap prices in India have climbed by as much as 2.5 per cent, which aligns with the upward trajectory of aluminium futures. Tense scrap originating from the UAE experienced a $30 per tonne increase, reaching $1,880 per tonne. Similarly, Zorba 95/5 of UK origin saw a $10 per tonne uptick, settling at $2,060 per tonne CFR (Cost and Freight) Mundra.

Trade activities are slow

Despite the recent price increases in imported aluminium scrap, trade activities have been progressing slowly. This deceleration can be attributed to several factors, such as the closure of Western region markets due to the LME holiday for Good Friday and Easter. The ongoing Ramadan period in the Middle East has also contributed to the overall slowdown in trade activity.

The current lacklustre activity aligns with typical trends during holiday periods in the market, indicating a seasonal slowdown that many are accustomed to. In response, many buyers have adopted a cautious approach, refraining from making significant purchases and focusing only on necessary transactions. They are closely monitoring market conditions but are delaying larger volume commitments until after the holiday periods.

On the supply side, a notable portion of exporters cannot provide firm quotations due to the disruptions caused by the holidays. This lack of clarity in pricing is affecting market dynamics. Another important observation from a scrap supplier is the shortages experienced for casting scrap and taint tabor materials. These shortages have led to price hikes and caused bid-offer disparities within the market, highlighting the challenges both buyers and sellers face during this period.

A source informed BigMint that only a limited number of prominent mills and established ADC12 manufacturers are willing to pay premium prices to secure raw materials for producing alloy ingots. This strategic move ensures they fulfil their contractual commitments with Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs).

Meanwhile, the prices of China's silicon 553 declined by $50 per tonne, settling at $1,890 per tonne CFR Mundra. This price drop was primarily due to the subdued demand for the material in the market.

Price of tense scrap

According to BigMint's assessment, the price for tense scrap in the domestic market is at INR 181,000 per tonne. This indicates a slight increase of 0.6 per cent from the previous week's price of INR 180,000 per tonne, ex-Delhi. However, certain scrap suppliers are quoting tense scrap at a premium price of INR 182,000 per tonne. A recent transaction involving 10 tons of aluminium tense scrap was reportedly concluded at INR 181,500 per tonne.

Outlook

Trade activities in the imported aluminium scrap market are expected to increase gradually following the conclusion of Ramadan. However, there is still some lingering uncertainty stemming from the upcoming election, which could lead to minor fluctuations in price trends in the short term.