As the global aluminium supply chain continues to swing between shifts and crunches, how has Europe fared on the production front in the 2026 year-to-date calendar? Substantially well, going by the output figures. Between January and September 2026, the European continent, including Russia, has produced a total of 5.56 million tonnes of primary aluminium, building a significant year-on-year growth chart. The nine-month growth chart Set against the same period of 2025, the first nine months of 2026 show a clear lift in output. From January to September 2026, Europe, including Russia, produced 5.56 million tonnes of primary aluminium, raising the annual growth rate by 5.69 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) over the 5.26 million tonnes produced in 2025. Explore the production, demand and...
The proposed $4 billion Oklahoma Primary Aluminum (OPA) smelter, a joint venture between Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and Century Aluminum, is targeting civil works in the second quarter of 2027, with first hot metal expected between mid- and late 2030. Realization of the 750,000-metric-ton project would render it the first new US primary aluminum smelter in nearly 50 years. However, local restrictions, environmental permitting and ongoing legal hurdles clouded its path towards maintaining the construction timeline. A local moratorium and an April 7 ballot sit on the same calendar. Explore the production, demand and consumption forecasts of bauxite and alumina in our report: “ Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook ” A...
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The Middle East has long been a powerhouse in the global aluminium industry, with its strategic location, abundant energy resources, and advanced technological infrastructure. As the world shifts towards sustainable production and decarbonisation, the region is embracing a new era of low-carbon aluminium production, renewable energy integration, and full operational capacity utilisation. In light of these developments, AL Circle is set to launch its latest e-Magazine, Aluminium Middle East: Focus 2025 , in mid-March 2025. This comprehensive industry publication will provide unparalleled insights into the latest trends, technological advancements, and investment opportunities within the Middle Eastern aluminium sector. Source: IAI, AL Circle Research Note: Production for Iran and Egypt in...
In a recent development, President Donald Trump announced a one-month suspension of 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican aluminium imports just days after announcing their imposition. The temporary pause, which extends until March 1, 2025, signals potential renegotiations over trade concerns and border security issues, raising uncertainty for US aluminium importers and domestic manufacturers alike. Tariff turbulence: Domestic industry impacted Already familiar with tariff-induced disruptions, the aluminium industry faces renewed concerns as traders and manufacturers brace for possible policy changes. Section 232 tariffs, imposed in 2018 during Trump’s first term, introduced a 10 per cent duty on aluminium imports, citing national security threats due to over-reliance on foreign...
All eyes have been on the primary aluminium industry ever since Donald Trump directed his administration to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Where will the United States source its downstream aluminium raw materials, and where will Canada redirect its primary metal? Trump's tariff declaration has led to too many questions while at the same time sparked a level of controversy with the President's most recent decision to reprieve his North American neighbours. Amid all this, there are also some other unignorable highlights from this week's upstream aluminium industry, such as a 26 per cent rise in Jamaican alumina export value, strong prediction for a 2025 aluminium price hike based on foreseen supply deficit in the market, Alcoa's substantial financial gains but bearish outlook...
Karoline Leavitt, Press Secretary, White House, publicly declared on Friday, January 31, in a news briefing that the US would begin imposing 25 per cent tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico and a 10 per cent tariff on imports from China starting February 01. Whereas just ahead of implementation, after much negotiation and last-minute diplomacy, US President Donald Trump has made a late-night declaration to a 30-day pause agreement on his 25 per cent tariff imposition against Mexico and Canada. The decision came as the US president conversed with his counterpart in Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum. He also exchanged telephone messages with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. It pulled the American neighbours back from the verge of a potentially raging trade war. However, the 10...
Here's an update about the share purchase and subscription agreement signed between Alcoa and Ma'aden on September 15, 2024. On February 4, 2025, the General Authority of Competition (GAC) approved Ma'aden to acquire Alcoa's 25.1 per cent ownership in Ma'aden Aluminium Company (MAC) and Ma'aden Bauxite and Alumina Company (MBAC). According to a previously published report, Ma'aden will purchase Alcoa's shares in MAC and MBAC for $1.1 billion and get full ownership and total operational and management control of the bauxite and alumina company as well as the aluminium firm. The approval of GAC marks the fulfilment of one of several customary conditions for this type of transaction. The deal is anticipated to be finalised by the first quarter of 2025. This strategic acquisition of Alcoa's...
Aluminium is set to be the standout performer among London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals in 2025, with analysts predicting a supply shortfall this year that could drive prices higher. According to the latest Reuters January base metals poll, analysts expect zinc, copper, and tin to see higher average cash prices in 2025 than in 2024. On the flip side, nickel remains the clear bearish bet. After plunging nearly 22 per cent in 2024, no one anticipates a reversal, with oversupply projected to persist through this year and into the next. Reuters January 2025 poll of base metals analysts Source: Reuters base metals analyst poll median forecasts While supply dynamics will play a key role in determining winners and losers, global economic uncertainty continues to overshadow the broader...
European Union’s sanction against Russia has unfolded numerous speculations about future trade scope among countries and continents. The EU’s proposal states a one-year phase-in period, with 275,000 tonnes exempted during this transition. This would mean a further decline in the import of Russian primary aluminium. On the one hand, in 2023, 500,000 tonnes were imported from Russia into the EU, on the other, the figure declined to 330,000 tonnes in the period of January to November 2024. The ripple effect of the uncertainty around the trade front has inevitably hit the market pricing segment as well. Pricing trend analysis Aluminium prices hiked 0.18 per cent to INR 253.9 (USD 2.90), owing to supply concerns post the European Union’s (EU’s) decision to phase by phase ban Russian aluminium...
February 4, 2025 – today is the day the United States' 25 per cent additional import tariffs on Canada, Mexico and 10 per cent on China are coming into effect. Already, the tariffs, even before being implemented, have brought several opinions from industry leaders on possible changes in market dynamics for the United States and the rest of the world. Jorge Eduardo Dyszel, a risk management consultant and expert in base metals and the London Metal Exchange, has weighed in on the situation. He suggests the United States importers will either need to pay the 25 per cent tariff or seek alternative sources for commodities like aluminium. He also warns that a reduced supply of aluminium could lead to higher premiums for US buyers, potentially resulting in a contango curve—an upward-sloping...
The United States metal companies and companies that import metals for their product manufacturing are likely to turn to the Middle East and India for aluminium supplies as they seek to bypass the extensive tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, according to industry sources. Trump's planned tariffs—25 per cent on imports from Mexico and most Canadian goods, along with 10 per cent on Chinese goods—lack precise details but are set to take effect on Tuesday, rattling markets. Analysts note that US consumers rely on Canadian aluminium producers like Alcoa and Rio Tinto for over half of their imported supply, prompting concerns about finding alternative sources. Primary aluminium production: North America, GCC & India (in million tonnes) Source: IAI Aluminium is crucial for the transport,...
Alcoa Corporation has reportedly announced the fourth and full-year results of 2024, demonstrating a strong financial performance led by increased operations and high alumina and aluminium prices. Image source: Alcoa Fiscal performance In the fourth quarter, Alcoa's Q4 revenue was US$3,486 million, up by 20 per cent from US$2,904 million a quarter ago. In the entire year, the revenue amounted to US$11,895 million, experiencing an increase of 12.7 per cent Y-o-Y from US$10,551 million. The company's adjusted net income in the fourth quarter was US$276 million versus US$135 million in Q3. In the full year, it totalled US$296 million, compared to a net loss of US$405 million in 2023. Adjusted income per share was US$1.04 in Q4, and that in the full year 2024 was US$1.35. Alcoa's Adjusted...
Donald Trump proposed 25 per cent tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10 per cent tariffs on China are set to take effect on Tuesday, February 4, following his executive orders on February 1 directing the administration to impose duties on these three trade partners. As per the report, an additional 25 per cent tariff will be applicable to all imports from Canada and Mexico, except energy resources, which will face a 10 per cent duty instead. Image source: Britannica The President's order specifies the tariffs will apply to those products entering the US for consumption or withdrawn from warehouses for consumption on or after 12:01 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on February 4, 2025. Goods already in transit to the United States with scheduled arrival at 12:01 a.m. on February 1 are exempt from...
The aluminium industry in 2025 stands at a pivotal juncture, shaped by evolving market dynamics, geopolitical uncertainties, and the accelerating drive toward sustainability. Stakeholders must navigate these complexities to position themselves for a transformative year ahead. The "Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2025" provides a comprehensive view of the industry, offering data-driven insights that outline both opportunities and looming threats across production, consumption, and market trends. Whether industry leaders, investors, or policymakers read this report, it will be more than another forecast. The global aluminium market size from 2025-2030, with a projected value of $355 billion by the end of the forecast period. The market is anticipated to expand at a compound annual growth...
Vedanta Aluminium, a key subsidiary of Vedanta Limited, has announced a historic performance for Q3 FY25, achieving its highest-ever third-quarter EBITDA of INR 11,284 crore (US$1.34 billion), marking a significant 30 per cent year-on-year increase. Image Source: https://www.vedantalimited.com/ Record production amid rising domestic demand Aluminium production for the quarter stood at 613 thousand tonnes, reflecting a 2 per cent Y-o-Y growth. However, production increased marginally from 609 thousand in Q2 FY25 ( up 0.7 per cent Q-o-Q). Alumina production surged by 7 per cent to 505 thousand tonnes, supported by advancements at the Lanjigarh refinery. Notably, Vedanta Aluminium recorded its best-ever quarterly value-added product (VAP) sales at 317 tonnes, a 16 per cent Y-o-Y increase....
National Aluminium Company (NALCO) experienced an eventful trading session on January 31, 2025, surpassing the nation’s aluminium sector. Despite trading below past key moving averages, it delivers a high dividend yield. The stock’s recent performance contrasts with broader market trends. NALCO’s share price is steadily more dependent on international fluctuations in alumina prices, as alumina is a primary raw material used in the production of aluminium. The state-run company is integral to the alumina as it sells a considerable portion of its manufactured goods in the open market. The company has upped by 3.18 per cent on January 31, 2025. This performance has marked the stock at an outperforming position as compared to its sector by 1.91 per cent, highlighting its relative strength in...
Commodity markets are factoring in heightened chances that US President Donald Trump’s sanctions on Canadian imports will include raw materials such as oil, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which cautioned that petrol prices in the Midwest could rise if the penalties affect crude flows. Differences in regional pricing for commodities such as aluminium and crude copper indicate an 85 per cent probability of a 10 per cent tariff being imposed, analysts including Samantha Dart and Daan Struyven said in a note. Lower probabilities were associated with higher eventual tariffs, they added. Canada is by some margin the largest supplier of primary metal to the United States, accounting for 79 per cent of total imports in the first 11 months of 2024. On the other hand, the re-elected...
Cargo through the Port of Toledo saw a slight overall decline of about 3 per cent in tonnage for 2024. However, the general cargo sector experienced a significant increase of over 30 per cent. This included a record-breaking year for aluminium, with 330,208 tonnes passing through the Toledo docks, according to Joe Cappel, the port authority's vice president of business development. Image Source: Port of Toledo website Record-breaking year for aluminium Mr Cappel noted that it remains uncertain how the aluminium, which was entirely sourced from Canadian smelters, might be impacted in 2025 by President Trump's threat of tariffs on Canadian imports. He also stated that Toledo's status as a London Metals Exchange delivery point for aluminium has boosted traffic in the metal, which typically...
Anuj Bareja, Founder and Managing Director of Asier Metals Private Ltd, stated at the LME Mumbai Forum on January 27, 2025, that establishing London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses in India could help mitigate the carbon footprint associated with transporting aluminium. With sustainability measures concerning aluminium and the future implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) levies, having these warehouses locally would eliminate the need to transport aluminium to LME-registered facilities in Southeast Asia for storage and delivery. “Why does India need to ship out 1.5 million tonnes of aluminium to Southeast Asia? Are we not burning fuel?” Bareja said, emphasising the need for LME warehouses in India where the metal can be stored and drawn out domestically. There...
The aluminium industry is at a crossroads. As the world races towards digitalisation, traditional manufacturing sectors—long bound by legacy processes—must either embrace this evolution or risk obsolescence. The launch of AL Circle’s latest e-Magazine, “Digital Transformation in the Aluminium Industry: Drivers & Changemakers of 2024” , comes at a pivotal time when automation, AI, and advanced data analytics are redefining efficiency, sustainability, and competitiveness in aluminium production and processing. Why should you read this? The aluminium industry, long reliant on traditional methods, is at a crossroads. Companies that fail to adapt risk falling behind in an industry increasingly driven by smart manufacturing and real-time data. This edition of the e-Magazine “Digital...
