1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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The prices of prebaked anode in December are expected to fall on suspension of high cost downstream aluminium smelters and lower impact of 2018/2019 winter production cuts in the primary sector, SMM expects. Some 1.96 million tonnes of capacity was cut for this winter in major prebaked anode producing provinces of Shandong and Henan, compared with around 6 million tonnes last year. Actual impact of the cutbacks is likely to fall short of the expected 1.96 million tonnes, as low prices of prebaked anode kept producers below full production over the year, SMM learned. In Shandong, where prebaked anode capacity accounted for 30.8% of overall capacity in China, only 530,000 tonnes of capacity was required to suspend during the winter. In Henan, a total of 14 prebaked anode plants received...
The US dollar index increased on hopes the US and China might renegotiate a trade deal at the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires, and this grew safe-haven gains for the greenback. Base metals, expect for SHFE nickel fell across the board. LME aluminium recovered some losses last week, but plunged heavily during Friday’s trading to close at US$ 1922.50per tonne on rising greenback. The contract traded upward at night. However, lower prices of oil and weaker macro sentiment pushed LME aluminium contract 0.33% to US$1,942 per tonne. It is likely to hover around the five- and 10-day moving averages, and test support at the 10-day moving average today. As on November 23, Friday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1922 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1922.50per tonne;...
Shanghai Metals Market research found spot aluminium discounts across Shanghai market remained unchanged on Friday from the previous day at RMB 40 per tonne to RMB 30 per tonne against the SHFE 1812 contract. In the morning trade, the SHFE 1812 contract increased but in a tight range. Most transactions in Shanghai and Wuxi were heard at RMB 13,810 per tonne to RMB 13,830 per tonne while that in Hangzhou at RMB 13,840 per tonne to RMB 13,860 per tonne. Sellers across the eastern markets were keen to offload cargoes, given the recent rebounds in aluminium prices and cash flow issues by month-end. The narrow spread between the December and January contracts left little arbitrage opportunities to traders and pushed them to sidelines while gains in aluminium prices eroded purchasing enthusiasm...
According to trade sources Nalco, Vedanta and Hindalco have cut prices of their products in accordance with the falling aluminium prices. Hindalco Industries Ltd is also reported to have cut the prices of aluminium products by more than 1%, effective November 21. The basic price of Hindalco’s P1020 Grade Ingots/Sows stands at INR 1,54400 (US$ 2187)per tonne on November 21, down from INR 1,56,400 ((USD 2215) per tonne on November 15. Prices of Hindalco’s aluminium products are now at their lowest level since mid-August. The company’s product prices have dropped over 6-7% in third quarter from the 2nd. This is in line with price of three-month futures of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange, which have declined more than 4% so far this quarter. Aluminium business accounted for 50% share...
The United States has rejected an appeal from India and Switzerland to set up a panel against the US for imposing high import duties on certain steel and aluminium products. Both the countries will now have to file a second request at the dispute settlement body's (DSB) next meeting which the US will not be authorised to reject. India had asked to establish panels after it failed to resolve the issue through a bilateral consultation process with the US under the dispute settlement mechanism of the WTO. "The two argued that the US actions were, in effect and content, safeguard measures and that they were both concerned the US was using national security as a justification for the tariffs,” a Geneva-based official told BusinessLine. The WTO's Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) agreed on...
The US dollar dipped against the pound and euro, which marched higher following the news that a draft agreement had been struck between the UK and the EU. LME aluminium has recovered some losses this week after dropping continuously since the second week of November. The contract closed Thursday’s trading at US$ 1941.50 per tonne, slightly lower than the previous closing. Upward momentum is seen in LME aluminium in the short run, as concerns over slow pace in interests rate hikes by US Fed will weigh on the dollar. The contract is likely to trade at US$1,940-1,970 per tonne today. The gap between the cash prices and future prices continues to grow bigger. As on November 22, Thursday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1941per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$...
According to Shanghai Metals Market, downstream consumers of primary aluminium remained cautious in making purchases across east-China markets on Thursday, November 22, given the recent volatility in prices. The SHFE 1812 contract inched up in the morning trade while spot discounts in Shanghai narrowed down to RMB 40 per tonne to RMB 30 per tonne against the SHFE contract, from RMB 50 per tonne to RMB 40 per tonne in the previous day. In Shanghai and Wuxi, most transactions were seen at RMB 13,740 per tonne to RMB 13,760 per tonne and that in Hangzhou at RMB 13,760 per tonne to RMB 13,780 per tonne, SMM found. Across eastern markets, sellers remained keen to offload cargoes. But purchasing enthusiasm was missing among traders because of the narrowed backwardation structure between the...
Xinfa Group, one of China’s top smelters, has been included on a list of exemptions for the winter heating season published by the Liaocheng Economic and Information Technology Committee and reviewed by Reuters. Subsidiaries of Xinfa, which has around 1.4 million tonnes of smelting capacity in Liaocheng, will not have to reduce production this winter. But an alumina refinery owned by Xinfa that can produce 4.4 million tonnes per year would have to cut production by 10 percent from Dec. 1 to Jan. 31, Reuters reported. The measures are much more lenient than during the 2017/18 winter, when China ordered smelters in 28 northern cities to cut production by 30 percent from mid-November to mid-March in order to reduce air pollution. Northern China’s heating season runs from Nov. 15 to March 15....
The aluminium producer Aluar, the only aluminium smelter in Argentina and one of the largest in South America has reported 54.5% increase in profits in its half yearly results. Based on the results, It announced peso 2,884 billion (79.71 million US dollars) dividends among its shareholders. The results reported to Argentina's stock exchange regulator Comisión Nacional de Valores (CNV), which was primarily driven by the Argentine peso devaluation. According to a company statement, the distribution of dividends will take place on November 28 as decided upon at the shareholders' meeting. Argentina's peso has fallen 52% against the dollar this year The company reported a gain of peso 4,107.10 billion in profits for the six months closing June 30, which registered an increase of 54.5% compared...
The World Trade Organization agreed that it would hear complaints coming from a range of countries over the US steel and aluminium tariffs and complaints from Washington over retaliatory duties. The WTO's Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) agreed on Wednesday to establish panels to review U.S tariffs of 25 per cent on steel and 10 per cent on aluminium on a host of countries. The WTO will form separate panels to review complaints coming from different countries. U.S. said that a single panel is not good enough to review and hear all of them. There were complaints from European Union, China, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Russia. A seventh request from Turkey for a panel will be discussed during a meeting later Wednesday. The DSB agreed on forming three panels to rule on the legality of retaliatory...
Social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, dropped by some 29,000 tonnes from Thursday November 15 to stand at 1.424 million tonnes as of Thursday November 22, Shanghai Metals Market data showed. Limited cargoes arrived in social warehouses this week and this accounted for the decline in stocks. Compared to last Thursday, inventories in Wuxi and Jiangsu plunged by 19,000 tonnes to stand at 609,000 tonnes while that in Nanhai and Guangdong dropped by 9,000 tonnes to clock at 20,000 tonnes. The current inventory status in the major Chinese cities is as follow: The A00 aluminium ingot price today, on November 22, rose by RMB20 per tonne after a decline for the past two consecutive days. The price stood at RMB 13,760 per tonne...
The US dollar’s rally paused while the euro rose as the equity selloff eased and demand for risk-averse commodities fell. The greenback was under pressure on some unexpectedly weak US economic data. The pound inched up after a parliamentary group failed to challenge Prime Minister Theresa May’s leadership. Base metals increased for the most part. LME aluminium is showing some upward movement after dropping continuously since the second week of November. The contract closed Wednesday’s trading at US$ 1945 per tonne, higher than the previous closing. Then it increased above the five- and 10- day moving averages as the US dollar dipped. With resistance at the 20-day moving average, it is likely to trade at US$1,945-1,960 per tonne today. As on November 21, Wednesday, LME aluminium cash (bid)...
The UAE’s Minister of Economy Sultan Bin Saeed Al Mansouri said on Tuesday, November 20, that his country would resolve aluminium and steel tariffs with U.S. as the balance of trade is in favour of the United States. “I hope next year we will resolve it. We will continue to explain our case," Al Mansouri said on the sidelines of an event in Abu Dhabi. Earlier this year, US President Donald Trump imposed import tariffs of 10 per cent on aluminium and 10 per cent on steel, and negotiations have been going on between the two countries to exempt UAE from the import tariffs. Al Mansouri said that Willbur Ross, Secretary of Commerce in the US, promised to look into the issue of aluminium and staff tariffs. The UAE is the United States’ third-most-prolific source of aluminium, after Canada and...
Global primary aluminium output rose 4% year-on-year in October 2018 to stand at 5.414 million tonnes. Primary aluminium production was 5.205 million tonnes in October 2017, according to the latest data showed by International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Month-on-month, primary aluminium production rose 2.13% from 5.301 million tonnes in September 2018, data showed on Tuesday, November 20. The total primary aluminium production stood at 53.437 million tonnes during January to October 2018 as against 53.067 million tonnes in January to October 2017.The figure was up by 0.7% year-on-year. In China, estimated aluminium production rose to 3.05 million tonnes in October 2018 from 3.01 million tonnes in September 2018. The country produced 30.22 million tonnes of white metal in the period...
In 2014 the Taiwanese Government had listed the metal related industry as one of Taiwan's pillar industries. It said going forward it would focus on assisting the sector to upgrade technology and develop high-end products. The country ranks second in per capita aluminium consumption with a rate of about 33.3 kg. The island country has reportedly seen a significant demand growth for aluminium alloy. One of Taiwan’s biggest flat-rolled aluminium products mill C.S. Aluminium has about 400,000 tonnes of aluminium product output capacity per year. However, Taiwan imports both primary aluminium and aluminium alloys. Primary aluminium is used for making aluminium alloys and aluminium alloys for supplementing domestic production and make value-added products. According to the global export-import...
Shanghai Metals Market research found purchasing enthusiasm among downstream consumers of spot aluminium across east China waned as prices of futures declined in late morning trading. The SHFE 1812 contract declined in late morning trade after it moved in a tight range in earlier trading hours. Spot discounts in Shanghai stood at RMB40-30 per tonne. Most transactions were done at RMB 13,720-13,730 per tonne in Shanghai and Wuxi and RMB 13,730-13,750 per tonne in Hangzhou. Sellers across eastern markets remained keen to offload their cargoes and transactions between traders were brisk. Downstream consumers purchased on demand when futures prices held relatively stable. In another update from SMM, the A00 aluminium ingot price today, on November 21, plunged by RMB 20 per tonne to stand at...
The US dollar rallied from a two-week low and settled at 96.79 as a sell-off in global stock markets spurred safe-haven bids and investors grew concerned about slowing global growth. Base metals, except for LME aluminium, fell across the board with LME zinc leading the losses and closing 2.48% lower. LME aluminium continued to trade weakly in absence of strong fundamentals but recovering slowly showing an uptrend. The contract however closed Tuesday’s trading slightly higher than Monday at US$ 1927 per tonne. It is expected to trade weak a trading range of US$1,920-1,960 per tonne today. As on November 20, Tuesday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1926 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1927 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1940 per tonne,...
The Aluminum Association, in cooperation with the Aluminium Association of Canada, reported the total primary aluminium production in North America (U.S. and Canada) was at an annual rate of 3,909,503 tonnes during October 2018. This registers an increase of about 77,964 tpy (+2.0%) over the September 2018 rate of 3,813,539 tonnes. The production rate in the U.S. was up 7.7 per cent month on month, while the Canadian rate rose slightly. This increase is driven by restarting of smelters in the US. However, compared to a year ago, the North American annual rate is still 1 per cent below the October 2017 rate of 3,947,875 tonnes. Actual production in October 2018 stood at 332,040 tonnes. The U.S. continues to recover aluminium from new and old scraps to support primary production. New can...
