1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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The US dollar recovered but remained under 97 as concerns before the G20 meeting prompted investors to buy back the currency. At the G20 summit in Buenos Aires on Friday and Saturday, the US President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping are scheduled to discuss trade issues after months of tension between the world's two biggest economies. After falling to a new low, LME aluminium recovered some losses and closed Thursday’s trading at US$ 1933 per tonne. However, the contract failed to stand firm above the 10-day moving average at night with resistance at the 20-day moving average. The contract is likely to trade at US$1,920-1,940 per tonne today. As on November 29, Thursday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1931per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$...
According to Shanghai Metals Market, the A00 aluminium ingot price has extended a plunge even today, on November 30, by RMB 80 per tonne to stand at RMB 13,500 per tonne. This marks the fifth consecutive fall throughout the week since November 26. The average prices today are expected to range between RMB 13,480 per tonne and RMB 13,520 per tonne, with spot discounts remaining the same at RMB 70 per tonne to RMB 30 per tonne. The ingot price in the east-China (Wuxi and Hangzhou) has come in at RMB 13,505 per tonne from RMB 13,565 as of November 30, marking a drop by RMB 60 per tonne. In the south and north, the prices today are standing at RMB 13,570 per tonne and RMB 13,500 per tonne after a drop by RMB 80 per tonne and RMB 70 per tonne from yesterday. The reasons behind the incessant...
Hydro will present its overall strategic direction and performance, including an update on the situation at the Alunorte alumina refinery and details on the market outlook for 2019 and the longer term at the Capital Markets Day 2018. Hydro said in the short-term it is working hard to resume full operations at Alunorte, following nine months of running at 50 percent production. “We are aiming to establish a common platform with authorities and the court system to have an aligned way forward towards full production, utilizing the best available technology. We have what it takes: the right people, the right technology and the right spirit,” President and CEO Svein Richard Brandtzæg said. Hydro expects global demand for primary aluminium to grow by 2-3% in 2019, with a continued deficit in...
In a press release, European Aluminium has welcomed the European Commission’s new plans to secure a long-term decarbonised economy by 2050. The Association also added that New 2050 climate strategy can take aluminium value chains as a role model to achieve its carbon economy targets. European Aluminium said that there is an urgent need to embrace strong sustainability programmes and redefine business models. “Our industry is working for many years to put efficiencies, incremental and breakthrough innovation in action. There is no choice but to enhance the potential of our strategic material and its unique low carbon applications by decarbonising all our processes from primary production to recycling,” said Gerd Götz, European Aluminium’s Director General. European Aluminium is working...
Shanghai Metals Market research found spot aluminium downstream buyers across east-China markets remained quiet today, on November 29, even as spot discounts widened. Sellers continued to show their enthusiasms to offload cargoes, learned SMM. The SHFE 1812 contract extended its fall even today in the morning trade. Spot discounts in Shanghai were heard at RMB 60 per tonne to RMB 50 per tonne against the December contract, compared to RMB 40 per tonne to RMB 30 per tonne in the previous day. Most transactions in Shanghai and Wuxi were at RMB 13,560 per tonne to RMB 13,570 per tonne and that in Hangzhou at RMB 13,590 per tonne to RMB 13,610 per tonne. The prices were down by some RMB 60 per tonne than the prior day. In Guangdong, on the other hand, transactions were mostly seen at RMB...
Century Aluminum has announced two new expansion programs at its Sebree smelter that will increase production of both value-added and secondary aluminium. The programs will improve smelter’s product mix by adding approximately 90,000 tonnes of additional billet production to the Sebree casthouse and increase the smelter’s overall production by adding 20,000 tonnes of additional secondary (scrap reprocessing) capacity. The programs are expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2019. Michael A. Bless, President and Chief Executive Officer said: “These new expansion programs demonstrate our confidence in the future of the U.S. aluminium industry and the continued positive effects of the Trump administration’s Section 232 program.” “With the 150,000 MT restart of Century’s Hawesville...
A government decree showed on Wednesday, November 28, that the Russian government may buy up to 50,000 tonnes of aluminium for the state reserve as a move to support sanctioned Russian aluminium giant UC Rusal. The decree, dated November 26, allocated up to 10 billion roubles or US$ 149 million for the plan, which was the initiative of Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska, a government source told Reuters. However, the text in the decree did not specify the reason for the potential purchases nor gave a timeframe. At present, the purchases are considered as a one-off step, according to the government source’s statement to Reuters. Rusal and its parent company EN+ Group also declined to give out much detail. Russia’s Industry and Trade Ministry were neither very prompt in responding when requested...
The US dollar dipped from two-week highs after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell described US interest rates as "just below" the neutral rate. Base metals rallied across the board, LME aluminium nudged up. LME aluminium price dropped to another new low as it closed Wednesday’s trading at US$1912.50 per tonne. Shanghai Metals Market expects the contract to trade at US$1,920-1,945 per tonne. Continued pressure is seen at the 10-day moving average on LME aluminium. As on November 28, Wednesday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1911.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1912.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1923.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1924 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 1993 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price...
According to Shanghai Metals Market, primary aluminium inventories across eight major consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, have recorded a drop by some 38,000 tonnes from a week ago to come in at 1.386 million tonnes on Thursday, November 29. On last Thursday, November 22, the social inventories of primary aluminium were at 1.424 million tonnes; hence, today the inventories registered a 2.7 per cent week-over-week decline exceeding the 2 per cent drop in the previous week. The reason is the declined shipment due to recent supply cuts. It is estimated to take 13.8 days to deplete current social stocks of primary aluminium ingots in China, which is a relatively high level. The below chart shows the current status of primary aluminium inventories across China as of November...
Shanghai Metals Market research found that further decline in aluminium futures prices today, on November 28, for the third day this week led to a wait-and-watch stance among downstream consumers in the east-China spot aluminium market. The SHFE 1812 contract dipped in morning trade while spot discounts stood at RMB 40 per tonne to RMB 30 per tonne in Shanghai against the contract, compared to RMB 50 per tonne to RMB 40 per tonne in the previous day. In Shanghai and Wuxi, spot transactions were done at RMB 13,620 per tonne to RMB 13,640 per tonne and that in Hangzhou at RMB 13,660 per tonne to RMB 13,680 per tonne. Across eastern markets, sellers were keen to offload cargoes, but consumers held back from making purchases. Therefore, transactions between traders remained brisk. In...
The US dollar rose to the highest in two weeks after Federal Reserve vice chairman Richard Clarida said that the US central bank’s interest-rate policy should be aimed at sustaining economic expansion and that gradual interest-rate hikes are the best way forward. Base metals fell across the board, aluminium dropped 1.26% The contract closed Tuesday’s trading at US$1925 per tonne, slightly higher than last closing. After the gain, LME aluminium settled below all moving averages at US$1,924.5 per tonne overnight. As the US dollar remains at highs, the contract is expected to trade US$1,920-1,940 per tonne today. As on November 27, Tuesday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1924.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1925 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at...
Shanghai Metals Market research found that spot aluminium sellers across south-China markets showed reluctance this morning, on November 27, in offloading cargoes as future aluminium prices fell in early trade. Both traders and downstream consumers were cautious in making purchases because of which the overall trades across the southern markets remained thin, SMM found. The SHFE 1812 contract declined in early morning trade while the most spot transactions in Guangdong were found at RMB 13,730 per tonne to RMB 13,740 per tonne, with Guangdong-Shanghai spread narrowed to RMB 40 per tonne. Spot transactions in Shanghai, on the other hand, were done at RMB 13,700 per tonne to RMB 13,710 per tonne with discounts at RMB 50 per tonne to RMB 40 per tonne against the SHFE 1812 contract, compared...
Brazil’s exports of petcoke remained almost flat year on year in 2017. The country delivered estimated 357819 tonnes of petcoke to the global markets last year.The leading destinations for total petcoke exports by Brazil last year, in descending order were South Africa, the United Arab of Emirates, the United States of America, Canada and India. According to recent estimates, South Africa was the top recipient of Brazilian petcoke in 2017. Petcoke imports increased 10% year on year to 107402 tonnes in 2017, as compared to 97856 tonnes in 2016. The import volume is expected to drop to 78015 tonnes this year. A by-product of the oil refining process Petcoke is a significant fuel for the power generation and aluminium smelting industries. Calcined petcoke, which is obtained by further...
The American Primary Aluminum Association (APAA) has urged the U.S. International Trade Commission to continue with the Section 232 tariffs on all aluminium imports, as the organization believes it is pivotal to safeguard the interests of the domestic primary aluminium producers. Mark Duffy, Chief Executive Officer of the APAA said, "The Section 232 aluminium tariffs are working. By the first quarter of 2019, due to production restarts, U.S. primary aluminium production will have increased by over 67 per cent. In order for those restarts to continue, and to better serve America's primary aluminium industry, all nations must be subject to either tariffs or quotas based on historic shipping levels.” He added that the tariffs have safeguarded the jobs and work of thousands of U.S. workers...
Going by Chinese consultancies AZ China and CRU’s calculations based on a local government document Reuters reports that China Hongqiao Group has been asked to close up to 550,000 tonnes of annual aluminium smelting capacity this winter. That is about equal to 1-1/2 days of aluminium consumption in China, noted AZ China Managing Director Paul Adkins. The city of Binzhou in Shandong province, where all of Hongqiao’s 6.46 million tonnes per year of aluminium capacity is located, reportedly listed pot closures at five Hongqiao smelting facilities in a document outlining winter restrictions. Some of the closures which have a total production capacity of 8.5 per cent of that of Hongqiao’s need to cut production for December and January instead of the full four-months winter heating season...
The US dollar traded robustly, supported by expectations of further interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and the G-20 summit later this week when political leaders will focus on global trade tensions. The greenback index hovered above 97. Base metals increased for the most part but aluminium edged down. The contract closed Monday’s trading at US$1920 per tonne, slightly lower than last Friday. After that LME aluminium settled at the highest overnight at US$1,949 per tonne as longs entered the market near closing. It is expected to test support at the 10-day moving average and trade at US$1,930-1,950 per tonne today. The general downturn continues to grapple all LME aluminium contracts. As on November 26, Monday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1918 per tonne, LME...
German aluminium producer Trimet has reportedly reduced the production of its P1020 ingot in response to tight global alumina supply. The firm had started a gradual reduction in its output from autumn, but exactly when the ingot production started being affected is unknown. The company’s board member Thomas Reuther said, "Due to a supply-shortage on the alumina market, Trimet has temporarily reduced its production of primary aluminium by approximately 10pc. Trimet expects to resume to full capacity in early 2019.” The company’s casting production, however, remains unaffected and expected to meet all the delivery commitments, said Trimet itself. Many other European smelters were hit similarly or more by the 50 per cent output cap at Norwegian producer Norsk Hydro’s Brazilian Alunorte...
U.S. tariffs on imported aluminium and steel which has triggered a trade war, has shaken the global markets, easing Asia's supply-demand balance and putting pressure on prices in this region while lifting prices in the U.S. This was further worsened by the sanctions imposed upon Rusal by the U.S., which has created a supply concern among its buyers. U.S. imports of the metal decreased 10% in the January-August period from a year earlier due to sanctions imposed by President Donald Trump causing prices to go up. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, imports of aluminium and aluminium products excluding scraps dropped about 440,000 tons to stand at 3.85 million tons. In late October, spot prices for aluminium ingots on an ex-works basis stood at around US$2,400 per ton, up roughly 3%...
