Aluminium prices in India nudged up 0.8 per cent to INR 238.9 per kilogram, buoyed by a chain reaction unfolding in China’s refinery landscape. But this isn’t just another pricing blip, and it’s a mirror to something deeper: the calculated routine of alumina supply, energy bottlenecks, and macro market muscle. As Chinese refineries go under the wrench and global production gears shift, the aluminium market is entering a new price reality, one which is calibrated not just by output but by strategic pause.
Image for representational purposes only
Maintenance or market masterstroke?
From late March through April 2025, nearly 11.5 million tonnes of Chinese alumina capacity went offline for maintenance, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). Far from a routine fix-up, this mass downtime was synchronised across provinces like Shanxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan, where cost pressures and environmental regulations demanded a cooling-off.
But the narrative isn’t just operational. The timing is everything. April sits between the post-Lunar New Year lull and the summer construction rush, a classic shoulder season. By pausing operations here, Chinese producers can reduce excess inventory, temper cost inflation, and realign production with peak demand cycles. It’s disciplined supply management, not desperation.
Yunnan’s hydro hiccup
The province of Yunnan, a major aluminium powerhouse thanks to its hydropower-fed smelters, added another twist. The region’s dry season (November to April) choked hydroelectric output, forcing producers to either slash production or retreat into maintenance. With fewer megawatts to spare, the smelters sat out—another supply twist feeding into a tighter alumina market.
Events
e-Magazines
Reports
Responses
