China's aluminium plate, strip and foil output holds steady at 388 kt in week to Oct 22; destocking slows

As of the week ending October 22, 2026, output at sampled aluminium plate, strip, and foil enterprises remained on a high level of 387,980 tonnes, a marginal week-on-week increase of 210 tonnes. Capacity utilisation rates averaged 69.84 per cent, largely flat compared to the prior week. Finished goods inventories continued to draw down, standing at 506,700 tonnes, down 7,500 tonnes or 1.46 per cent from the previous week, though the destocking slope has clearly flattened.

The spot prices of aluminium opened the week at RMB 23,650 per tonne and closed Friday at RMB 23,670 per tonne, fluctuating within a narrow range of RMB 23,380 per tonne - RMB 23,710 per tonne, with a weekly average of RMB 23,641 per tonne, showing a range-bound trend. The overall market has transitioned from post-holiday concentrated destocking to a weak equilibrium characterised by high supply, rigid demand absorption, and high costs.

Last week, the weekly output of sampled aluminium plate, strip, and foil enterprises was 387,980 tonnes, up 210 tonnes W-o-W. The 4-week moving average was 387,750 tonnes, with last week's output 230 tonnes above that average. Over the past 12 weeks, output has ranged between 385,870 and 390,470 tonnes; the current 387,980 tonnes sits in the lower-mid section of this range, below both the 12-week average (388,200 tonnes) and the August high (390,470 tonnes).

Capacity utilisation last week was 69.84 per cent, virtually unchanged from 69.80 per cent the week before, and has remained within a tight band of 69.46 per cent–70.29 per cent over the past 12 weeks. The current rate is near the 12-week average (69.85 per cent), reflecting that amid high aluminium prices oscillating in a narrow range and limited profit margins, enterprises lack the incentive for a significant production ramp-up, nor is there a need for concentrated cutbacks.

Last week, finished goods inventories at these enterprises totalled 506,700 tonnes, down 7,500 tonnes W-o-W. The 4-week average was 519,700 tonnes, with last week's inventory 13,000 tonnes below that mean, indicating that the post-holiday destocking gains are still intact.

Looking at changes over the past four weeks, inventories have pulled back from the post-National Day holiday peak of 549,700 tonnes. In the first week, logistics suspensions meant virtually no shipments, resulting in pure inventory buildup until the 5th, when dispatches slowly resumed. After downstream operations restarted post-holiday, shipment volumes surged on the 7th and 8th, causing inventory data for the week ending October 8 to fall rapidly back to 506,700 tonnes.

Overall, over this month, enterprise finished goods inventories have drawn down by a cumulative 43,000 tonnes. However, influenced by the rising price centre, the destocking pace has clearly slowed and has essentially returned to pre-holiday levels. After digesting backlog orders accumulated during the holiday, downstream end-users have shifted to rigid purchase decisions.

Over the next two weeks, the aluminium plate, strip, and foil market will likely sustain its weak equilibrium, with stable weekly output and finished goods inventories potentially shifting back into buildup mode should aluminium prices climb further. Future finished goods inventories are projected to fluctuate within a narrow range of 500,000–530,000 tonnes, while output holds on a high plateau of 385,000–390,000 tonnes per week.

As time progresses and prices continue to rebound, new orders face marginal downside risks, and finished goods inventories are also under restocking pressure. Continuous monitoring of enterprise order trends and finished goods shipment speeds is warranted to guard against risks that sharp price swings may pose to business operations.

Note: This news is published under a content and exchange agreement with Mysteel