No one in the global tech supply chain has a clear read on where US tariffs will finally land, but one truth is already cementing, that the deepest fault line will be between Washington and Beijing. The biggest casualties? Companies welded to China’s tightly integrated technology manufacturing ecosystem, with the US as their top shelf for sales.
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Smartphones and PCs are in the blast zone
Apple’s vast production web still runs heavily through China, making it one of the most exposed names in the game. PCs aren’t far behind. The triad of Dell, HP and Lenovo earns an estimated 15-20 per cent of operating profit from US sales, and with laptops more dependent on China than desktops, the risk premium is real. Higher costs will roll downhill to consumers, who account for 45 per cent of PC sales and the lion’s share of smartphone demand — a customer base that is notoriously price-sensitive.
In the second quarter of 2025, India became the top source of smartphone imports to the US, with 44 per cent of the total, while China’s share dropped to 25 per cent.
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