NALCO’s nosedive: From ‘bull’ to ‘bear’ as tariff turmoil continues and sector shakes up

National Aluminium Company (NALCO) has taken a serious beating on the bourses this week, tumbling to a fresh 52-week low of INR 142.05 (USD 1.70). That marks an overwhelming 22.71 per cent nosedive over the last nine straight sessions, with the stock opening Wednesday with a dramatic 9.92 per cent gap down.

It’s not just NALCO feeling the heat, the entire aluminium and metals sector is under siege. NALCO has underperformed its peers by 1.77 per cent, and technical indicators paint a grim picture: the stock is trading below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, to be noted as a classic bearish territory.

Despite the market drama, NALCO isn’t all doom and gloom under the hood. The company boasts rock-solid fundamentals, from a low debt-to-equity ratio to a stellar 77.83 per cent annual operating profit growth, and a hefty 6.34 per cent dividend yield. It has posted five straight quarters of profits, yet its one-year performance is down 19.45 per cent, outpacing even the broader Sensex decline of 2.30 per cent.

So, what’s fuelling this freefall?

Industry watchers point to geopolitical tariffs and global demand shocks. NALCO CMD Brijendra Pratap Singh flagged that US tariff moves are pushing India to redirect aluminium exports to Europe — a market already importing over 150,000 tonnes of Indian aluminium worth USD 7 million annually. But with Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) kicking in from January 1, 2026, even that window might shrink.

The latest tariff storm, which started brewing in February, has dragged down not just NALCO but other major Indian metal players too. While reciprocal tariffs have been suspended for 90 days—except for China—the Indian stock market hasn’t caught a break yet.

According to G Chokalingam of Equinomics Research, the slump in the metal index, and by extension NALCO, boils down to three pressure points:

• Trump’s 54 per cent tariff on China, which has thrown the entire global metal trade into disarray.
• Sluggish global growth, with deflation dragging down oil and metals alike.
• China’s pivot towards dumping steel, creating supply glut chaos in cheaper export zones.
• Rewind to November 6, 2024—NALCO was flying high at an all-time peak of INR 237.05 (USD 2.84). Fast-forward to now, and it's staring down a bearish abyss.

Despite Trump’s 90-day tariff pause, the original 25 per cent levy on aluminium and steel stands firm, with additional duties on automobiles and auto parts rolling out through May. So, for now, investors might want to buckle up, because this ride’s still on a rough descent.

The immediate impact is already being felt with stock prices dropping in April. Read more here