South32, one of the world’s most prominent diversified miners, finds itself at a critical juncture. The company is caught between the looming silence of its Mozal Aluminium smelter in Mozambique and the fresh promise of growth from its Australian assets. Together, these developments illustrate the challenges and recalibrations shaping the future of one of the sector’s most closely watched players.
The decision to suspend operations at Mozal after March 2026 is a sobering one. For months, the company wrestled with the question of whether Mozambique could guarantee the competitively priced and reliable electricity supply that smelting demands. With no resolution in sight, South32 conceded that running Mozal under the proposed tariffs would render the operation “internationally uncompetitive.” The impact has already filtered through the books with USD 372 million impairment against the asset in fiscal 2025 and a sharp forecast decline in production (from 355 kilotons in 2025 to 240 kilotons in 20260).
But beyond the numbers lies a heavier truth. Mozal is more than a smelter; it is Mozambique’s industrial flagship, directly employing 2,500 people and indirectly supporting another 21,000 livelihoods, while contributing close to 4 per cent of national GDP. Its suspension represents not just a corporate retrenchment but a profound economic blow to a country that has long pinned its hopes on industrial growth as a pathway to prosperity. Restarting Mozal, if it ever happens, could take three to four years and cost hundreds of millions, underscoring the fragility of aluminium production in energy-insecure regions.
Also Read: South32 to mothball Mozal Aluminium amid power deal deadlock
Worsley Alumina expansion
Yet, even as one cornerstone wobbles, South32 is laying new foundations elsewhere. In Western Australia, the company has secured environmental approvals for its Worsley Alumina expansion, a project that will reinforce its position as a leading alumina supplier to global smelters and sustain production through FY36 and strengthen future revenue prospects.
At the same time, the planned restart of the GEMCO manganese operations signals South32’s intent to restore volume and earnings resilience. As highlighted in recent analysis, these projects have the potential to cushion investor sentiment and reframe the company’s growth story away from the shadows of Mozal.
Taken together, the two narratives reveal a miner adapting to new realities. Energy security, once a background factor, is now as central to aluminium’s future as ore grades or smelting technology. For South32, the closure of Mozal may appear a retreat. Still, the approvals at Worsley and the GEMCO restart demonstrate a proactive pivot towards assets where risk is more manageable and long-term potential more certain.
Get more industry insights from - Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2025
The broader lesson extends far beyond South32
As governments push for decarbonisation and industrial competitiveness hinges increasingly on affordable green energy, the aluminium sector faces a stark choice: evolve or falter. Mozambique must reckon with the economic gap left by Mozal, while South32 must prove to shareholders that growth and resilience can still be found in its diversified portfolio.
For now, one chapter in Mozambique is drawing to a close, while another in Australia is opening with renewed promise. In this delicate balance of setbacks and opportunities, South32’s story is becoming a case study in how miners navigate the fragile intersection of resources, energy, and resilience in a rapidly changing world.
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