Doomsday for both the aluminium and the automotive sectors, especially Ford. A recent fire at an aluminium plant in New York is expected to throw a wrench in the production of Ford Motor's F-150 pickup for several months. This disruption could hit the automaker's earnings by as much as USD 1 billion, according to a report from Evercore ISI analysts released on Wednesday.
The breakout
On September 16, 2025, a massive fire led to the closure of Novelis' aluminium plant in Scriba, New York. The flames caused significant damage, particularly to the roof and the hot mill, which is the company's largest aluminium fabrication site in North America. The damage was mostly limited to the roof. This plant is a major player, producing over a billion pounds of aluminium sheet each year for industries like automotive, beverage cans and construction.
This breakout is expected to keep a significant portion of the facility offline until the first quarter of 2026, as stated by the company in a report to Reuters. This extended shutdown is likely to affect the aluminium supply for Ford Motor's top-selling F-150 trucks through the end of this year, which could lead to some challenges throughout the automotive supply chain.
A spokesperson for the automaker stated, "Novelis is one of several aluminium suppliers to Ford. Since the fire nearly three weeks ago, Ford has been working closely with Novelis and a full team is dedicated to addressing the situation and exploring all possible alternatives to minimise any potential disruptions."
Continued challenge for Ford
Shares of Ford took a hit soon after, dropping nearly 6 per cent on Wednesday after news broke about a fire at Novelis' Scriba aluminium plant. This has raised some red flags for investors, who are worried about possible production delays and supply chain issues affecting the automaker's popular F-150 pickup.
The disruption in the supply chain is yet another hurdle for Ford, which is still trying to cope with soaring steel and aluminium prices, changing trade dynamics and a supplier network which is still deemed to be affected due to the 2020 pandemic-related shutdowns and the union strike in 2023.
Evercore's Chris McNally noted, "We believe this is largely a Ford issue at this time, although we are continuing to check knock-on effects for [Stellantis] and Toyota as well."
Recently, EV sales surged as eager buyers rushed to grab the USD 7,500 federal tax credit before it expires on September 30. Ford hit a significant milestone with 10,000 F-150 Lightning deliveries in the third quarter, reinforcing its status as the leading electric pickup in the US. However, CEO Jim Farley has warned that without this incentive, EV sales could plummet to about half of the record numbers recorded in August and September.
Novelis' take on the outbreak
Novelis has announced that it's taking proactive steps to lessen the fire's impact on its customers. This includes tapping into its global manufacturing network and working closely with industry partners to find additional aluminium and tackle any potential supply shortages.
Possible impacts on other automakers
Toyota has told FOX Business that it doesn't anticipate any major disruptions from the fire at the Novelis plant, as it can source its aluminium needs from other suppliers. Meanwhile, Volkswagen has stated that they have not seen any immediate effects.
Ford made waves over ten years ago by introducing an aluminium body for its F-150, aiming to cut down on weight and boost efficiency. This month, the automaker is set to unveil its earnings for the third quarter.
Also read: Ford takes USD 3 billion tariff hit despite 80 per cent domestic production
Responses
