The price of Japanese aluminium ingots has noted a 0.3 per cent increase in its price in late October 2025, mainly owing to the fact that the value of the Japanese yen (JPY) has depreciated against the rising dollar. Although the price has increased, the market still faces a downward trend as Japanese premium continues to fall, which in turn is affecting the aluminium ingot market in the fourth quarter of the year. The stock of heavy finished goods and the prudent customers’ purchasing behaviour tend to affect the overall prices of aluminium ingots in Japan. However, analysts maintain a bearish outlook for the near term.
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The increase in prices of Japanese aluminium ingots by 0.3 per cent is guided by several factors, including the high demand from downstream industries, along with the high demand from the automotive sector. The automotive sector, the top consumer of aluminium ingots, has increased its sales by 42.15 per cent. In addition, the overall demand for aluminium in packaging products like cans has helped to keep the demand for aluminium ingots in steady condition. The demand for cans in the alcoholic sector has increased by 1.5 per cent year-over-year to around 550 million units, accelerated by the high demand for beverages. However, the construction sector has shown a mixed outlook for the overall demand for aluminium.
Japan’s quarterly premium for importing aluminium ingots continues to decline and reach USD 86 per tonne in Q2, which is almost 20 per cent lower than the Q3 at USD 108. This is the third consecutive fall in this quarter, having a total fall of 41 per cent in Q3 from USD 182 in Q2 and USD 228 in Q1, showing a steady decline.
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The sharp fall in Q3 is due to several reasons, including the various trade difficulties faced by the aluminium ingot in this quarter, high prices of alumina, a change in Chinese policy, along various other global factors. The importance of Japan in the import of aluminium is significantly decreasing, creating pricing pressure on Asian exporters.
The aluminium ingot stocks in the three major ports of Japan have increased to 341.3 thousand tonnes, up 1.8 per cent from the previous month to the end of September. This high inventory has created downward pressure on the prices of the aluminium ingots as supply is more than demand.
Though the overall domestic demand for aluminium ingots is increasing, the market remains weak and slow. With the huge inventories and the changing buying behaviours of the customers, the return of the high aluminium ingot market in early 2025 is pretty less.
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