According to the Shanghai Metals Market survey, China’s metallurgical-grade alumina production amounted to 6.782 million tonnes in March 2024 (31 calendar days), reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8.3 per cent from 6.262 million tonnes and a year-on-year rise of 2.13 per cent from 6.64 million tonnes.
From January to March 2024, China’s metallurgical-grade alumina production totalled 19.764 million tonnes, marking an annual growth of 3.31 per cent from 19.13 million tonnes.
China’s daily average alumina output in March 2024 was 218,800 tonnes per day, up by 4,500 tonnes per day from 214,300 tonnes in March 2023.
Operating capacity
In the year’s first three months, China’s alumina production capacity was 100 million tonnes, while the operating capacity was 79.96 million tonnes and the average operating rate was 80 per cent.
The operating rate in Shanxi was 70.2 per cent, up 2.2 per cent M-o-M, attributed to a production capacity recovery of 1.1 million tonnes at one of the refineries, which suspended its operations in mid-March due to insufficient raw material supply.
The operating rate in Henan was 66.4 per cent in March after increasing by 9.4 per cent month-on-month, contributed by a refinery that recovered 900,000 tonnes of operating production capacity. The operating rate in Guizhou also rose M-o-M, albeit at a lower rate of 1.3 per cent, to stand at 76.5 per cent, thanks to the production resumption of several refineries that shut down in early February, involving an annual capacity of 600,000 tonnes.
In Guangxi, operating rate grew by 2.1 per cent M-o-M to 84.4 per cent due to production capacity recovery of 500,000 tonnes, while the operating rate in Hebei remained at 90.8 per cent. In Shandong, however, operating rate decreased by 3.1 per cent M-o-M to 92.7 per cent, mainly due to technical renovation in a refinery that forced some roasters to shut down for maintenance from March 15 to May 15, affecting 80,000 tonnes.
Forecast for April 2024
Alumina refineries in Henan are expected to increase and resume production, while a refinery in Guizhou, that halted production for maintenance, will most likely restart in early April. A refinery in Guangxi will resume its production capacity to 2.2 million tonnes in early April but another refinery had to suspend production for around 12 days in early April due to unstable ore supply.
Considering all these factors, SMM expects China’s daily alumina output to stand at 221,800 tonnes per day in April, up by 1.35 per cent from March, and total operating capacity at 80.96 million tonnes
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