07 OCTOBER 2026AlCircle.com

Ma’aden aluminium surge puts growth back in focus as stock trades at $17

3 min read

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Ma’aden’s aluminium business delivered strong revenue growth in Q2 2026 as higher realised prices lifted the segment, although weaker phosphate and ammonia guidance creates a mixed operating backdrop.

Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma’aden) saw aluminium revenue rise 49 per cent year on year to USD 1.01 billion in Q2 2026, with realised aluminium prices increasing 51 per cent to USD 3,915 per tonne.

The stronger aluminium performance provides the clearest quantified growth signal in Ma’aden’s latest operating picture. However, revised production guidance for phosphate and ammonia adds a counterweight as investors assess the company’s broader portfolio.

Higher aluminium prices drive revenue growth

The aluminium division produced 242,000 tonnes in Q2 2026, while its realised price reached USD 3,915 per tonne, up 51 per cent from the prior-year quarter.

The combination of higher realised prices and stable production indicates that the 49 per cent increase in aluminium revenue was primarily supported by pricing rather than a significant increase in output.

The stronger aluminium performance gives the business a larger role in Ma’aden’s earnings profile, particularly as other parts of the portfolio face more mixed production expectations.

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Phosphate and ammonia guidance provides a counterweight

Ma’aden has also revised down its 2026 production guidance for phosphate and ammonia, according to an analysis dated September 6, 2026.

This aluminium as the clearest quantified growth driver in the latest company picture, while the lower phosphate and ammonia guidance presents a separate execution challenge.

Ma’aden’s stock was trading at SAR 64.20 (USD 17.12) on the Saudi Exchange on October 7, 2026, up 0.55 per cent from the previous close of SAR 63.85 (USD 17.02). The stock’s 52-week range stood at SAR 54.90 (USD 14.54) to SAR 79.90 (USD 21.30).

Analyst consensus remains Neutral

The analyst outlook remains mixed despite the stronger aluminium performance. An 11-analyst consensus is Neutral, with an average 12-month price target of SAR 66.79 (USD 17.81).

The average target is 4.0 per cent above the SAR 64.20 (USD 17.12) share price, while the high and low targets stand at SAR 80 (USD 21.33) and SAR 46 (USD 12.26), respectively.

The next earnings report is scheduled for November 3, 2026, giving investors another opportunity to assess whether aluminium pricing strength is translating into broader earnings momentum while the lower phosphate and ammonia guidance remains part of the operating backdrop.

Ma’aden had a market capitalisation of SAR 249.2 billion (USD 66.44) as of October 7, with trading volume at 105,526 shares.