
The US dollar started the week lower on Monday, June 24 on fear of interest rate cut but rebounded from a more than three-month low as investors tempered expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. LME base metals traded mostly higher over the week despite the rise in greenback.

LME aluminium traded higher this week compared to the last. LME aluminium started the week with US$ 1747.5 per tonne and gained further to reach the monthly highest at US$ 1803 per tonne on June 27. The contract then lost some gains and closed the week at US$ 1773.5 per tonne on Friday. Three-month LME aluminium lost most of the gains from earlier this week as it ended the week at US$ 1793.50 per tonne. The contract is not likely to fluctuate much in the coming week and expected to trade within a close range within US$ 1800 per tonne.
As on June 28, Friday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1773 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1773.50per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1793 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1793.50 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 1908 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 1913 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped below the one million mark to 996725 tonnes on Friday. Live Warrants totalled at 642500 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 354225 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1796 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) also started the week lower at US$ 2004 per tonne and continued to trade in a lower range in comparison to LME aluminium. The price hit the highest at US$ 2021 per tonne and closed the week a little lower.
The most active SHFE August contract traded higher at RMB 13,890 per tonne in the beginning of the week. The contract failed to stand above the RMB14,000 per tonne level over the week as it stopped rising at RMB13,945 per tonne. The SHFE August contract extended overnight declines to an intraday low of RMB 13,780 tonne before it recovered some ground to finish the trading day 0.5% lower at RMB13,830 per tonne on Friday. Despite falling inventories, SHFE aluminium is unlikely to strongly break the RMB 14,000 per tonne level in the short term, in the absence of positive news on the consumption or cost front. Limited upward momentum is likely to keep the contract within a range of RMB 13,800 to 14,000 per tonne next week.
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