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AL CIRCLE

LME aluminium to keep rising momentum after touching new highs last week

EDITED BY : 3MINS READ

Aluminium traded on London Metal Exchange is showing extreme volatility. The contract after rising for six days in a row surged to peaks not seen since July last year during Friday’s trading. LME aluminium was 0.4 per cent higher at $1,705.50 a tonne, having peaked at $1,709.50. It finally closed at $1,701.50 on Friday, October 28. Analysts say the volatility has been picking up as traders square books ahead of an industry event in London scheduled this week. A softer dollar too helped underpin the gains in the commodities.  

"The whole complex is doing better, which is a sign some speculative money may be coming in," observed Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar. "Month-end is during LME Week and there will be people away from their desks, so there could be a bit of book-squaring happening earlier." The recent price rises, market participants say, may boost sentiment after a tough year.

LME-registered aluminium stocks fell by 4,850 tonnes to 2,143,500 tonnes at the end of last week.

On the LME Aluminium Premium’s side, as on October 26, LME Aluminium US Premium was $150, LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium was $ 75, LME Aluminium East-Asia Premium was $ 65, and LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium stood at $15.

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On Shanghai Metal Exchange, aluminium closed at $2,195 on October 28, Friday and opened at $2,207 on October 31.

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This week’s forecast:

The rising momentum of LME aluminium is expected to continue this week as well. The light metal prices will likely move at USD 1,710-1,730/mt on Monday, said analysts at Shanghai Metals Market.

SHFE 1612 aluminium is set for further gains this week. Inventory in China was low and supply was tight. RSI was above 80, mirroring overbought. SHFE 1612 aluminium will test RMB 14,000/mt on Monday and move between RMB 13,900-14,100/mt, said SMM.

In China’s domestic market, spot aluminium should be trade at premiums of RMB 560-600/mt over SHFE 1611 aluminium on Monday.

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Key macroeconomic indicators:

• The US dollar index plummeted last Friday, growing long momentum. If the US dollar index remains weak today, market optimism will remain.
• Eurozone trade data were still sluggish, which may reflect on Eurozone Q3 GDP.
• Crude oil prices have been rising modestly
• German October CPI may improve significantly
• US spending and retail salaries are expected to improve shortly


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EDITED BY : 3MINS READ

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