After a continuous downtrend, LME aluminium registered a rise and closed at US$ 2135.5 per tonne on Monday from US$ 2098.5 per tonne in the previous closing. It registered a second consecutive rise last night. It stood firm above the five-day moving average, jumping to a high of US$2,134.5 per tonne with resistance at the 10-day moving average. Aluminium inventory across LME warehouses rose 9,275 tonne to 1.12 million tonne. Shanghai Metals Market sees it trading at US$2,100-2,130 per tonne today.
As on July 9, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2135 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2135.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2105 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2106 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2140 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2145 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock increased to 1115250 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 930925 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 184325 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2109 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased to US$ 2119 per tonne on July 10 from US$ 2116 per tonne on July 9.
The SHFE 1809 contract traded rangebound yesterday within a narrow range after hitting a high of RMB 14,225 per tonne. The contract was pushed up by its LME counterpart to a high of RMB 14,230 per tonne today morning, then inched down to close at RMB14,175 per tonne. SMM expects it to trade rangebound at RMB14,050-14,250 per tonne today, with spot discounts at RMB 70-30 per tonne.
Aluminium prices are likely to stabilise in the near term as alumina prices rebounded. Whether aluminium prices can rebound, however, remains to be seen given the elevation in trade tensions and strong pressure on the fundamentals front. Demand is slow due to sluggish decommissioning of new capacity. The 1809 contract is expected to hover at RMB 13,950-14,200 per tonne in the short term.
The US dollar index fell below 94 on weaker-than-expected salary data, but closed slightly up from the previous trading day as Euro declined. Key factors to watch today include China's consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) in June
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