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AL CIRCLE

LME aluminium may rise marginally; faces strong resistance at 5-day moving average

EDITED BY : 3MINS READ

Any rise in LME aluminium, if at all that happens, will be a marginal one. The light metal traded globally ended last week in a dip near US$1,860 per tonne, down from the earlier close of US$1,864 per tonne. Fundamentals are still weak; so, it is likely that LME aluminium will keep trading at lows in the short term. Further, the metal contract faces a strong resistance at the five-day moving average. Based on that, Shanghai Metals Market predicts that aluminium prices will hover in the range of US$1,862-1,880 per tonne on Monday, June 19.

Reuters’ technical analysis suggests that LME aluminium may break above the resistance and rise towards the next resistance at US$1,899 per tonne. Support is at US$1,871, a break below which would lead to the continuation of the downtrend towards $1,863 per tonne.

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As on June 16, LME official cash buyer aluminium price stands at US$1,859 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price is US$1,861 per tonne, 3M buyer price is US$1,871 per tonne, 3M seller price is US$1,871.50 per tonne, Dec1 buyer price is US$1,905 per tonne, and Dec1 seller price is US$1,910 per tonne. The current LME official Opening Stock of aluminium is estimated at 1432825 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1031600 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 401225 tonnes.

LME aluminium premiums, as on June 15, remain unchanged across major regions. LME Aluminium East-Asia Premium stands at US$110, LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium remains unchanged at US$15, and LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium is at US$85, and LME Aluminium US Premium is at US$195 (per tonne).

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The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) stands at US$1,985 per tonne on Monday, June 19, marginally up by 0.55 per cent from US$1,974 per tonne on June 16. 

At Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the most active aluminium future contract SHFE 1708 aluminium is trading at lows. With the commissioning of new capacity, there is a new spate of supplies in the market. The consumption, on the other hand, is comparatively low. So, SMM thinks aluminium prices will remain weak in the foreseeable future moving at RMB 13,490-13,670 per tonne on Monday, June 19.

Spot aluminium in east China market is expected to trade at discounts of RMB 120-80 per tonne over SHFE 1706 aluminium contract on Monday, June 19.

The market focus will be on China’s house price in 70 medium and big cities, UK’s Brexit negotiation and The Chicago Fed National Activity Index Chair’s speech on Monday, SMM said. 


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EDITED BY : 3MINS READ

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