Geo-political conflicts often have ripple effects on metal markets, disrupting trade flows and driving commodity price volatility. A clear example is the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, which has altered the dynamics of the global aluminium market. Firstly, within less than a month following the onset of the conflict in 2022, the aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged by 34 per cent, reaching almost USD 4000 per tonne in early March, then followed a wave of Western sanctions against Russia, triggering supply chain disruptions, increasing concentration of aluminium in London Metal Exchange (warehouses), potential shortages, and ultimately production cuts, especially in Europe, a region historically dependent on Russian aluminium.
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