India’s climate ambitions just received a reality check. But it is going to be one with a USD 1.5 trillion price tag. A new Deloitte-backed report has laid out the math for New Delhi’s decarbonisation journey through 2030, and the numbers are not for the faint-hearted. To meet its commitments under the Paris Agreement, including 500 GW of non-fossil capacity and major emissions reductions across sectors, India will need to unlock an investment corpus that is nearly half its current GDP.
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Image for representational purposes only
But this isn’t just a green finance problem. This is a hard-asset dilemma. What India is being asked to build at unprecedented scale and speed sits at the intersection of policy ambition and industrial inertia. And that makes this not just a climate story, but one that cuts deep into the future of Indian aluminium, steel, cement, and power-intensive industries.
Where the USD 1.5 trillion is going
Of the USD 1.5 trillion, an estimated USD 200-250 billion is earmarked for renewable power and grid expansion. Another USD 250–300 billion is projected for battery storage, critical for integrating variable solar and wind into the grid. These two categories alone represent over one-third of the total requirement. Aluminium is deeply embedded here: from PV panel frames and inverters to transmission lines and battery casings, its demand is structurally tied to this transition.
India currently has about 180 GW of renewable capacity installed (excluding large hydro), and it aims to double this to reach 500 GW by 2030. The scale of aluminium needed to support this transition—from solar mounting structures to conductor-grade wire rods—cannot be overstated. For context, just the renewable energy sector globally accounted for 3 million tonnes of aluminium demand in 2023, a figure set to rise sharply, particularly in energy storage and EV infrastructure.
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