India’s ambitious shift towards clean energy could face unexpected challenges from the weather. A new study led by UK meteorologists reveals that combined solar and wind generation can plunge during certain weather events, creating so-called “renewable energy droughts” lasting up to nine days. These droughts, the research shows, are most likely during the winter months between November and February.
The study examined historical weather data between 1979 and 2022 to assess how India’s solar and wind grids might behave under different meteorological conditions. Periods when combined solar and wind output fell below a set threshold were classified as renewable energy droughts.
Hannah Bloomfield, Academic Track Fellow at Newcastle University and one of the study’s authors, says such work is vital for India’s energy future. “India has a ridiculously large proportion of the world’s solar and wind power,” she explains. “There exists a huge amount of renewables, and equally huge demand. Yet, there is a surprising lack of studies on blackouts and power grids in the Global South compared to Europe or America, where it’s actually much less of a problem.”
When the grid runs dry
The researchers found that drought events are typically multi-day occurrences. The longest lasted nine days, appearing twice during the 42-year study period. They were often linked to familiar weather systems such as western disturbances and extended dry spells in winter. Encouragingly, such events can usually be forecast 10–15 days in advance, allowing grid managers to prepare.
Crucially, the study noted that overlap between solar and wind drought days was rare. When wind production dipped, solar output often picked up, and vice versa.
Aluminium’s role in renewables
Alongside generation challenges, the materials used in renewable energy systems are becoming increasingly important. Aluminium, in particular, is now central to solar panels, wind turbines, and hydropower equipment. Its lightweight, corrosion-resistant and recyclable properties make it critical to building durable and efficient renewable infrastructure.
India’s expanding capacity
As of April 2025, India has built up the infrastructure to generate 220 GW of renewable energy, dominated by solar and wind projects. The country is targeting 500 GW by 2030. But this rapid growth makes the grid more vulnerable to shifts in weather, which directly control how much power solar and wind systems can produce.
“In recent times, we’ve seen a delay in monsoon withdrawals, happening in October rather than its usual time,” explains co-author Pillai. “If you’re investing in solar energy expecting clear skies and good heating, but your climate changes in such a way that the monsoon starts earlier and ends later, it can be quite challenging. Accurate predictions can make it easier to overcome some of this unpredictability.”
Policy response
Recognising the risks, Indian authorities are already moving to improve forecasting. Earlier this year, the Central Electricity Authority issued guidelines to install Automatic Weather Stations in solar and wind plants across the country. These will help monitor conditions more closely and anticipate renewable output more accurately.
Still, investment patterns remain tilted heavily towards solar. If that balance shifts in the future, the patterns linked to energy droughts may look different.
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Future forecast
To reconstruct past weather conditions, the team used the ERA5 re-analysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The dataset combines historical observations with climate modelling to build a close approximation of past weather.
“ERA5 is a high resolution global dataset. It makes use of weather observations made in the near past and climate modelling to predict what the weather would’ve looked like historically,” says Pillai. “It has its own limitations, though. At the end of the day, it is not entirely made up of past observations, and it uses climate modelling outputs to fill in the gaps in observational data. Not all parts of the world may have historical weather observations available for the model’s input.”
Despite the risks, Bloomfield remains optimistic. The study found that potential blackout scenarios caused by prolonged dips in renewable generation were relatively rare, and when they did occur, the impact was not severe. Overall, the findings suggest India’s path to net zero remains promising.
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