
On the supply side, there are indications of an increase, notably in China, which is expected to lead to an excess metal balance for the current calendar year. As a result, metal prices are unlikely to see significant improvements in the near term and the profit margins of the industry are expected to remain under pressure in the face of a weak global environment, Jayanta Roy, Senior Vice-President and Group Head, Corporate Sector Ratings, ICRA, commented.

The estimates for the operating profitability of Indian domestic players stand at 17 per cent for both FY2024 and FY2025, reflecting a contraction of nearly 150 basis points when compared to the levels of FY2023, as per Roy.
According to ICRA, the domestic demand growth rate in India for non-ferrous metals is expected to remain 9 per cent over the next two fiscal years. The ratings agency also cautioned that profit margins within the non-ferrous metal industry would continue to face challenges due to the global economic downturn.
Non-ferrous metals like aluminium, copper, and zinc are included in this category.
"The domestic demand growth rate is expected to remain healthy at 9 per cent in the next two fiscals and would sharply outpace the expected global demand growth rate. Thus, ICRA has maintained a stable outlook on the sector," stated the agency.
Roy noted that global non-ferrous metal consumption had slowed during the current calendar year due to sluggish demand conditions, primarily in developed nations. Furthermore, he pointed out that while there had been a partial recovery in demand from China compared to lacklustre performance in the previous calendar year, uncertainty persisted regarding the strength of China's recovery. Signs of increased supply, particularly in China, were evident on the supply side, and this was likely to result in a surplus metal balance for the ongoing calendar year.
In light of these factors, metal prices were not expected to see substantial improvements in the short term, and the industry's profit margins were anticipated to remain under pressure due to the weak global environment, Roy added.
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