Born from the 1992 UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) treaty and signed at the Rio Earth Summit, the COP (Conference of the Parties) completes three decades of climate commitment meetings. The 30th COP or the ‘2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference’ is being held at the heart of the Amazon (Belem, Brazil) and is currently in progress. Yet, when it comes to evaluating the achievements as opposed to targets or goals, the mass notion is that the majority of the countries have failed to achieve the agenda of the climate meets and only 15 have achieved the deadline set by the latest Paris agreement for 2025 (which was inscribed at the COP21). Let’s explore what is the ground reality of COPs versus aluminium in the past thirty years.
Image source: https://www.who.int/
COPs & aluminium — what has happened to date
At COP26 (Glasgow, 2021), aluminium featured indirectly. Sectoral announcements and data releases in the run-up to Glasgow highlighted energy-efficiency gains and the need for sectoral alignment with 1.5°C pathways. COP26 also stimulated discussion about trade-and-carbon (for example, carbon intensity in steel and aluminium was part of broader policy conversations).
The aluminium sectoral leaders used Glasgow as a platform to report progress and press for industrial decarbonisation support.
Again, COP27 (Sharm el-Sheikh, 2022), which was framed as an “implementation” COP, saw the aluminium sector's continued engagement (IAI and partners ramped up communications and partnership work around industry decarbonisation).
COP28 (Dubai, 2023) was a watershed for aluminium sector initiatives. This year saw multiple aluminium-sector-specific initiatives launched or promoted, among which was the notably, International Aluminium Institute (IAI) backed an Aluminium Industry GHG Initiative to track and publicly report sector emissions and company ambition. At this event, the UN/COP presidency and partners launched broader Industrial Transition Accelerator initiatives aimed at heavy-emitting sectors to unlock finance and scale decarbonisation technologies.
Between COP28 and COP30 (2024–2025), the sector continued to publish roadmaps (IAI, WBCSD and others), studies showing that last-mile decarbonisation may need CCUS and greater renewable availability, and calls for massive investment (some sources estimate roughly USD 1 trillion investment needs to align the sector with Paris trajectories over the coming decades).
So, what is on the COP30 menu that matters to aluminium?
COP30 (Belém, Brazil) is scheduled for 10–21 November 2025.
The provisional agenda and schedule make finance the headline. Negotiators in Belém are explicitly still deciding how to mobilise far larger sums, like figures discussed publicly this week put the prize at over USD 1 trillion annually by the mid-2030s to support developing-country transitions. For aluminium producers, especially who operate in emerging economies, that is a crucial lever. Access to concessional finance, risk guarantees and grants will decide whether a smelter invests in renewables, inert-anode technology, or CCS — rather than simply switching suppliers or staying with coal-linked electricity.
UNFCCC session pages and COP30 logistics pages are live. The world expects continued industry fora and side-events on industrial decarbonisation, wherein aluminium actors (IAI, WBCSD, major producers) typically bring technical sessions, pledges and finance-seekers to the gathering. People tracking debate and outcomes on aluminium at COP30 are to be watching for:
(a) IAI or industry GHG Initiative progress reports,
(b) Industrial Transition Accelerator/finance announcements,
(c) pledges/coalitions on recycling/circularity targets (e.g., can recycling targets), and
(d) technical workstream outputs in the UNFCCC industry tables.
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Are we close to meeting the COP goals? Divulging the global numbers…
According to a LinkedIn-published article by Navin Malhotra, we’re not even close. Global emissions must fall 60 per cent by 2035 to avoid climate breakdown. But current plans only deliver 10 per cent. However, fossil fuel subsidies hit USD 7 trillion in 2022. Global temperature rise is on track for 2.5-2.9°C by 2100.
But the aluminium industry has been fighting hard. According to an article by Reuters, the aluminium sector’s full ‘cradle-to-gate’ greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions (covering mining, refining, smelting, transport, power-use and recycling) were reported at 1.11 gigatonnes of CO₂e for 2022. Alongside, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the aluminium sector emitted cumulatively 270 million tonnes of CO₂ (direct emissions) in 2022 (3 per cent of global industrial CO₂).
Production grew 3.9 per cent that year (from 104.1 million tonnes in 2021 to 108.2 million tonnes in 2022), with emissions falling slightly (from 1.13 gigatonnes in 2021).
The IAI further reported that in 2023, the emissions intensity (which I believe refers to tonnes CO₂e per tonne of aluminium) for primary aluminium fell from 15.1 tonnes of CO₂e per tonne of aluminium produced in 2022, as compared to 4.8 tonnes of CO₂e per tonne of aluminium produced in 2023.
The global average emissions intensity across the full aluminium supply chain (both primary and recycled) was 10.04 tonnes of CO₂e per tonne of aluminium in 2023 (down from 10.28 tonnes per tonne of aluminium in 2022) according to the IAI’s December 2024 press note.
Key industry pledges under the IAI initiative
The IAI launched its “Aluminium Industry GHG Initiative” at COP28 (Dubai, 2023). Under it, member companies committed to set a long-term GHG reduction target (preferably net-zero by 2050) and a roadmap. They were to identify an interim milestone (ideally by 2030) for Scope 1 & 2 emissions and disclose annual progress (Scope 1 & 2 — and desirably Scope 3) using a consistent methodology (IAI Aluminium Carbon Footprint, etc).
Coherently, some specific company pledges included Norsk Hydro targeting a 30 per cent reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, and carbon-neutral by 2050; Alcoa has set an ambition for net-zero by 2050, increasing the renewable energy share in their smelters.
At the same time, Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA), one of the lower-intensity producers, reported 2.69 tonnes of CO₂e per tonne for cast products in 2024, and a 40 per cent reduction target from 2019 to 2030.
The IAI notes 80 per cent of its member companies now have publicly stated long-term GHG goals (many net-zero by 2050).
Goals vs reality – an evaluation to aide carving the path forward
For all these years, the COP process has shaped the global climate governance framework, but its outcomes have remained uneven.
The Kyoto Protocol established the first binding emissions reduction obligations, though it applied only to developed economies and eventually lost momentum. And, the Paris Agreement corrected that asymmetry by requiring every country to submit and regularly strengthen its national climate targets.
Net-zero commitments now cover an estimated 90 per cent of global GDP, and renewable energy has become cost-competitive with coal in most markets.
Yet the gap between pledges and outcomes remains extensive. Global emissions have not peaked and are tracking toward a warming level closer to 2.4-2.7 degrees Celsius than the desired 1.5-degree pathway. The absence of binding enforcement under the Paris framework means that many national targets are voluntary and backloaded. Climate finance commitments have also lagged behind political rhetoric.
The USD 100 billion-a-year support package for developing nations took years before delivery even began, while negotiations on “loss and damage” financing required nearly a decade to produce an operational structure.
Meanwhile, the central question of fossil fuel phase-out continues to move incrementally. It was only during COP28 in Dubai that negotiating text explicitly acknowledged the need to transition away from fossil fuels, although with language that left space for interpretation and gradualism.
In sum, COP discussions have not singled out aluminium directly, but their influence has filtered through national climate strategies, energy market reforms, renewable procurement frameworks and the scrutiny of industrial supply chains by global buyers. The outcome is a sector that recognises the inevitability of carbon constraint, but where the pace of decarbonisation still depends heavily on power mix transformation, technology deployment costs and the credibility of national policies.
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