The first half of 2025 marked a turning point for the global aluminium industry, arguably its most turbulent period in recent memory. The trigger was the United States’ imposition of steep tariffs on aluminium imports, a move that set off ripple effects across global supply chains. What began as a trade policy measure quickly escalated into a broader disruption, reshaping cross-border trade dynamics, injecting volatility into global aluminium prices, and diverging demand patterns from primary aluminium to aluminium scrap. Supported by stable supply chains, prices within a reach of USD 2,200 per tonne, and tariff exemptions, the demand for scrap has attained a new high.
Thailand emerged as a new hotspot of aluminium demand, fuelled by its expanding automotive manufacturing sector, and thus turned into a major importer of aluminium scrap replacing Malaysia. Together, these developments signal more than just a momentary shift in the global aluminium landscape; they rather reflect a deepening reconfiguration of the value chain. As H2 2025 unfolds, the following events are expected to shape industry trajectories well into the future.
Aluminium scrap – a new anchor of stability
If tariffs rocked the primary market, scrap has become the sector’s stabiliser. With sustainability goals and low-carbon production targets, countries have scaled up their use of scrap. They have ramped up their production, increased import volume, or indulged in both to meet the required amount.
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