Across the Gulf, the primary aluminium and alumina sector has been moving at a noticeably different pace this year. Aluminium output across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has been edging lower through 2025, a trend that becomes clear once the latest numbers are lined up against last year’s. In the first ten months, smelters produced 5,128 thousand tonnes, compared with 5,282 thousand tonnes in the same period of 2024 — roughly a 2.9 per cent drop. Many operators sensed the shift even before the figures confirmed it, as daily output that once hovered around 17.2–17.5 thousand tonnes last year has settled closer to 16.7–17.0 thousand tonnes in 2025.
Quarterly numbers confirm it. Q1 settled at 1.52 million tonnes compared with 1.58 million tonnes last year same period, and the daily averages followed the same direction, easing back to around 16.8–17.0 thousand tonnes instead of the 17.3–17.5 range of 2024.
Q2 didn’t break the pattern, finishing at 1.53 million tonnes against 1.57 million tonnes a year earlier, with daily output sliding into the 16.8–16.9 thousand-tonne band. Q3 mirrored it as well, at 1.54 million tonnes instead of 1,587 thousand tonnes; daily rates fell from roughly 17.2–17.3 thousand tonnes to about 16.7–16.9.
Even October stayed in step with the rest of the year. Production reached 525 thousand tonnes, down from 541 thousand tonnes, and the daily rate eased from 17.5 to roughly 16.9 thousand tonnes. The drop show how the region has been affected with Guinea’s decision.
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