AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
Grow with
AL Circle
Aluminium Deutschland paves effective path to revive Germany's aluminium industry
Aluminium Deutschland, IG BCE (a trade union in Germany) and IG Metall (a dominant metalworkers' union in Germany) have joined hands through the German Aluminium Alliance with five federal states intending to transition into climate neutrality and competitiveness for Germany's aluminium sector. European Aluminium has recently published its upcoming 5 years' top priorities which include 1. delivering an effective industrial strategy that boosts investment in Europe, 2. promoting green transition, 3. delivering internationally competitive energy prices and supporting industrial decarbonisation, 4. revitalising European Union's Trade Defence and Policy, 5. building coherent environmental practices through substance management framework. The German alliance is similarly based on 4 prioritised...
US primary aluminium output drops in July'24, but scrap recovery compensates for it by gaining 5% Y-o-Y
The United States’ domestic primary aluminium production increased in July 2024 to rebound to the level of output achieved in May. Compared to the production volume in June at 55,000 tonnes, the United States output in July gained 2,000 tonnes M-o-M, according to the latest data from the US Geological Survey. Following the increase in July, the United States’ primary aluminium production volume amounted to 57,000 tonnes, which was, however, significantly down by 7,000 tonnes or 11 per cent year-on-year from 64,000 tonnes. In the first seven months of 2024, the United States’ primary aluminium output totalled 396,000 tonnes, registering an annual downfall of 10.41 per cent from 442,000 tonnes. The average daily production of primary aluminium in the United States during July 2024 was 1,830...
ESA explores the future of in-space manufacturing with autonomous aluminium weld analysis
European Space Agency (ESA) engineers have closely examined a groundbreaking aluminium weld produced in space. This marks a historic milestone as the first autonomous welding conducted in orbit and the first of its kind involving ESA. The weld, a mere one centimetre in size, was created using electron beam welding technology as part of an experiment led by ThinkOrbital, a US-based startup. The experiment occurred aboard a spacecraft launched in May via a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. Now, ESA's Materials and Electrical Components Laboratory in the Netherlands is rigorously scrutinising the weld. The team is analysing the structure and quality of the space-made weld using advanced testing tools such as microscopes and X-ray tomography. The results will be compared with identical samples produced...
Mining permits should last until resources deplete: President Director, Freeport Indonesia
In a bold statement on October 8, 2024, Tony Wenas, President Director of PT Freeport Indonesia, one of the world's leading mining and ore processing companies, expressed his support for the potential removal of government regulations that currently restrict the duration of mining concessions. Wenas highlighted that many countries do not impose time limits on mining operations, provided that concession holders adhere to responsible and sustainable mining practices. This perspective underscores a growing recognition of the need for regulatory frameworks that foster long-term investments in the mining sector while ensuring environmental stewardship. Wenas's comments could pave the way for significant changes in Indonesia's mining policies, promoting a more flexible approach that aligns with...
Aluminium demand in North America marks a positive growth trend in H1 2024 with a 5.2% rise Y-o-Y
Aluminium demand in North America (US and Canada) has demonstrated an upward movement through the first half of 2024, marking a 5.2 per cent year-on-year growth, as shown by the Aluminum Association in its monthly Aluminium Situation report. “2024 continues to be a strong year for aluminum demand,” said Charles Johnson, president & CEO of the Aluminum Association. “Customers and end consumers have made it clear that they want sustainable, recyclable materials like aluminum. Our members are investing in production and jobs in the United States to help meet this demand both now and in the future.” Showcasing a steady advancement from 13,365 million pounds in H1 2023, North America’s aluminium demand this year is reported at around 14,056 million pounds. To this growth, aluminium sheet and...
China’s aluminium processing industry PMI rebounds above 50% due to momentous gain in demand & production
According to the Shanghai Metals Market, China’s comprehensive Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for the aluminium processing industry rebounded in September above the 50 mark since May. It recorded a month-on-month surge of 18.1 per cent, driven by the PMIs of aluminium plate/sheet and strip, aluminium foil, industrial aluminium extrusion, primary aluminium alloy, and secondary aluminium alloy. All the sectors mentioned above registered PMIs above 60 per cent, signalling positive growth in the manufacturing and service sectors. As per SMM’s data, China’s average PMI for the aluminium processing industry stood at 61.7 per cent, withstanding a weak PMI level in the construction aluminium extrusion sector. Demand improvement for industrial extrusion products, especially in photovoltaic and...
Arrow Minerals set to launch maiden drilling at Niagara Bauxite Project in Guinea
Arrow Minerals Limited is poised to launch its maiden bauxite exploration program at the Niagara Bauxite Project in Guinea. The program will include drilling, bulk sampling, and metallurgical testing to estimate Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resources. This will set the stage for a Scoping Study in the first half 2025. The project's initial phase will focus on three of nine identified targets, selected for their strategic location near the rail corridor and cost-effective start-up potential. These targets will benefit from past exploration efforts, including 448 drill holes completed in previous campaigns by companies such as Vale in 2007. Arrow plans to drill approximately 150 holes, spaced 600m by 600m and reducing to 300m by 300m, totalling around 2,000 meters of drilling. In...
GCC countries gear up for green aluminium production ahead of 2026's Carbon Tax scheme
Gulf countries are determinedly shifting to green aluminium production since past few years amidst the upcoming enactment of 2026's Carbon Tax scheme. As of 2020, Aluminium Stewardship Initiative(ASI) reported that the GCC country smelters are close to ASI’s benchmark carbon emission target of 8 tonnes of CO2e emission per tonne of aluminium production. "Several Middle Eastern aluminium producers have made clear efforts to offer low-carbon emissions aluminium products to the wider market, including products with higher recycled content, as part of a response to the growing demand for this material as well as preparation for the implementation of CBAM in the EU in 2026," Khaula Bhatti from S&P Global Commodity Insights disclosed to a regional media. The current transitional stage of the...
H1 2024: US aluminium crude metal and alloy imports decline due to less contribution by UAE and Australia
In the first half of 2024, the United States aluminium crude metal and alloy imports recorded a year-on-year decline of 7.04 per cent. Although the import volume increased Q-o-Q in the June quarter, it was not enough to offset the total deterioration of H1. From 911,000 tonnes in Q1, the United States aluminium crude metal and alloy imports rose to 940,000 tonnes in Q2, marking a gain of 3.18 per cent. Year-on-year, the import volume in the second quarter edged a decline of 16.59 per cent from 1.127 million tonnes, which primarily resulted in a downward trajectory through H1 2024. The year-on-year growth in the United States Q1 imports of about 5.8 per cent (from 861,000 tonnes to 911,000 tonnes) was too little to mitigate the overall downturn. According to the US Geological Survey, the...
Africa & Asia’s alumina production rebounds by 1.32% in August 2024
Alumina production in Africa & Asia (ex-China) rebounded in August 2024 after a drop the previous month. The output, as per the International Aluminium Institute survey, recovered by 1.32 per cent M-o-M, a testament to the industry's stability, even though it did not reach the production level achieved in June. The same is true with the daily average output, as it rose in August by 500 tonnes after a fall in July but still lagged behind June production. However, despite the drop in Africa & Asia's alumina production during July 2024, the output by a whisker reached above 1.2 million tonnes. In the said month, the production decreased by 1.95 per cent M-o-M to 1.209 million tonnes. According to IAI data, alumina production in Africa & Asia (ex-China) during August 2024 amounted to 1.225...
Top five destinations of the United States aluminium exports during H1 2024
The United States of America, with an impressive economic size of US$26.95 trillion (as of 2023), ranks among the world’s leading aluminium producers, consumers, and exporters. Based on AL Circle’s research, the United States is the second-largest producer of aluminium extrusion and scrap and the fifth-largest manufacturer of cast aluminium products. According to Statista, the United States aluminium consumption reached 4 million tonnes in 2023, while the US Geological Survey reported exports of 3.29 million tonnes (including scrap). Now that the United States’ H1 2024 export data is revealed, it is evident that the country is seeing a consistent growth trajectory in its aluminium export volume over the years. In the first half of 2024 ended June 30, the United States exported 1.77...
Europe’s primary aluminium production sees a 5% growth in August on risen profitability due to LME price rally
In August 2024, primary aluminium production in Europe continued to grow , reaching a new high. Month-on-month, the output increased by 2,000 tonnes or 0.34 per cent, while year-on-year surged by 29,000 tonnes or 5.1 per cent, supported equally by Russia & Eastern Europe and Western & Central Europe. According to the data revealed by the International Aluminium Institute, primary aluminium production across Europe amounted to 597,000 tonnes during August 2024, compared to 595,000 tonnes in July 2024 and 568,000 tonnes in August 2023. Of the total European output in August, Russia & Eastern Europe contributed 354,000 tonnes, accounting for 59.3 per cent, and Western & Central Europe contributed 243,000 tonnes, accounting for 40.7 per cent. Production trend in Russia & Eastern Europe On a...
_0_0.PNG)
World alumina production hits this year’s new high driven by gains in South America, Europe and Africa & Asia (ex-China)
The world's alumina production in August 2024 maintained a robust monthly record, increasing slightly from 12.511 million tonnes in July. Thanks to the growing alumina output in Africa & Asia (ex-China), South America, and Europe (including Russia) that drove the world's production, offsetting a drop in Oceania and North America. For the fourth consecutive month in 2024, the world's alumina output consistently stood above 12 million tonnes. However, according to a year-on-year calculation, the output dropped from 12.517 million tonnes. Nonetheless, the world's total alumina production during January-August stood 2.08 per cent higher annually, from 94.9 million tonnes to 96.878 million tonnes, buoyed by consistent Y-o-Y growth in output through July 2024. According to the International...
Sustainability meets precision: Aluminium hole stays from TSUBAKI KABELSCHLEPP
TSUBAKI KABELSCHLEPP has introduced aluminium hole stays from its LG series, designed to significantly enhance the service life of cable carriers and contribute to improved sustainability of the overall system. These small but impactful components offer several advantages, including optimal routing for even the heaviest cables and hoses within the neutral bending line. Additionally, the hole stays provide flexibility with 1-mm increments for precise adjustments, simplifying both installation and maintenance. This innovation underscores the company's commitment to advancing durability and efficiency in industrial applications. Werner Eul, Head of Industry & Product Management at TSUBAKI KABELSCHLEPP explained, "The less strain is placed on cables and hoses inside a cable carrier, the...
Jamie Dimon highlights global economic complexities, praises the resilience of U.S. and Indian economies
In a recent conversation with one of the leading Indian news media, Jamie Dimon, a seasoned financial expert and the CEO of JPMorgan, shared his insights on the global economy's challenges. He underscored that despite lingering concerns over inflation and recession, the U.S. and India are demonstrating remarkable resilience. "There's a lot of noise about recession — the U.S., Europe, and a slowing China," Dimon said, acknowledging the global uncertainty. He noted that while China's economic growth has decelerated, India is performing exceptionally well. The U.S. economy, too, has exceeded expectations, weathering economic headwinds better than many anticipated. Dimon's comments reflect a nuanced understanding of the global economic landscape as nations grapple with inflationary pressures,...
Open arbitrage window and risen domestic demand propel China’s primary aluminium imports to a monthly high
China’s primary aluminium imports recorded month-on-month and year-on-year increases in August 2024, while exports showed a downtrend, suggesting an impressive domestic demand for the primary metal over the rest of the world. China’s domestic aluminium processing enterprises have received new orders that require primary aluminium for production prior to the implementation of tariffs by many countries on Chinese aluminium. Lower aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange than on the Shanghai Futures Exchange could also be linked to China’s higher imports as the wide price gap led domestic downstream manufacturers to source raw materials from abroad, whilst overseas manufacturers refrained from sourcing Chinese metal. According to the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary...
World primary aluminium production declines from record high but is offset by major producing regions
In August 2024, the Oceania region played a critical role in driving the world’s primary aluminium production. In tandem with a month-on-month drop in the region’s primary aluminium production, the world’s output decreased from the record high level but was largely offset by stable production volume in other parts of the world. With the decrease in primary aluminium production across the Oceania region, its contribution to the global output dipped from 2.62 per cent in July to 2.49 per cent in August 2024. According to the International Aluminium Institute, the world’s primary aluminium production in August 2024 slipped from its record high, standing at 6.179 million tonnes versus 6.185 million tonnes in July. However, on a year-on-year basis, the output stood impressively high at 1.2 per...
Renewable energy sector faces grid infrastructure bottleneck
While global investment in renewable energy continues to surge, a critical bottleneck is hindering progress: insufficient power grid capacity. According to estimates, solar and wind facilities capable of producing electricity equivalent to 480 nuclear reactors remain disconnected from transmission networks in both the U.S. and Europe. This issue is not isolated to the West. South Korea's government recently denied U.S. asset manager BlackRock's proposal to build an offshore wind farm in Asia, citing a lack of available grid capacity, as reported by local media. The challenge of connecting new renewable projects to the grid is becoming a significant roadblock. Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) reveals that the world added approximately 560 gigawatts of renewable power...
