Global EV sales to hit 35.4 million by 2030, with aluminium usage forecast to rise 38% in North America & 79% in China
From just 2 million vehicles in 2018 to a projected 35.4 million in 2030, the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) is reshaping the global automotive industry - and changing how much aluminium goes into every car. As automakers expand EV production, aluminium is finding new applications in battery enclosures, electric-drive housings, vehicle bodies and structural components, making the metal an increasingly important part of the industry's transition. Global sales of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are projected to reach 23.3 million units in 2026, up 11 per cent from 21 million in 2025. Sales are forecast to rise to 26.1 million in 2027, 29.2 million in 2028 and 32.2 million in 2029, before reaching 35.4 million in 2030. The market has grown...
AL Circle analysis: How do Germany’s 32.8% automotive aluminium share, 40% Diet Coke can price rise & 3.54Mt North American extrusion demand matter?
Aluminium’s downstream and end-user world is having one of those fortnights where a beer can, a luxury sports car, a German construction site and an Indian furnace all end up in the same conversation. The metal may begin its life far upstream, but its real fuss is playing out in cans, cars, extrusions, buildings and factories, where tariffs, trade policy, energy costs and demand cycles decide who wins. This fortnight highlights that aluminium demand is moving towards electric vehicles, lightweight transport and long-life infrastructure, even as packaging and construction feel the pinch of cost and weak activity. Meanwhile, producers from Vietnam to New Zealand are arguing over the oldest question in the business of how much protection, taxation or openness does a downstream industry need...
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NAPCO reveals strategy to increase exports following recent expansion initiative
Following the announcement of its recent expansion, National Aluminium Products Company SAOG ( NAPCO ), one of the leading extruders of aluminum profiles in the GCC, has unveiled its plans to increase its exports by accelerating its production. The company, which has a current production capacity between 18,000 and 20,000 metric tonnes, aims to diversify its products along with the markets through a phased growth strategy in sales and marketing. The move is attributed to an increase in demand for NAPCO 's products due to its excellent quality and history of reliability. NAPCO 's exports in the first half (H1) of 2014 experienced a significant growth in percentage and quantity compared to the same period in 2013. In addition, there was an increase of 15 per cent in its production for the...
China’s Guangdong imports 488,000 tonnes of Alumina in H1 2014
Inbound shipments of alumina to Guangdong in China totaled 488,000 tonnes during the first half of 2014, up 16.2% year-on-year, China Customs data showed. Average price of the imported material, however, was 2,259 yuan ($366) per tonne, down 2.8% from a year earlier. During the period, imports from Australia, the largest supplier, fell by 9% to 378,000 tonnes, while arrivals from India grew from 772.4 tonnes to 31,000 tonnes. Brazil and Venezuela were new suppliers of the province’s imports, according to the data.
Century Aluminum upgraded to overweight by Morgan Stanley (CENX)
Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of Century Aluminum from an equal weight rating to an overweight rating in a research report sent to investors on Tuesday morning. The firm currently has $33.00 price target on the stock. “We are upgrading CENX to Overweight and introducing our PT at $33 (up 106% vs. our previous base case). Our upgrade is based on 69% upward revision to our 2015e EBITDA on stronger pricing & mix. We see $4/share of incremental value from mix improvement, $3 from growth, and $1 from cost cutting opportunities, not currently priced in shares. We estimate 2015e FCF at $3.68/sh, leaving sufficient cash to invest in low-capex growth/mix improvement opportunities and capital return (share buyback or special dividend). Our bull case is at $50 on higher EBITDA (73% above base...
LME to launch new clearing house on September 22
According to Reuters’ reports, the London Metal exchange has revealed on Wednesday that they will launch a new clearing house on September 22 after they get clearance from the UK and European regulators. The largest and oldest market for industrial metals like zinc, copper and aluminium had decided to step up their role by building the clearing house, three years ago. Now they can use the same to improve risk monitoring, increase income and boost development of new products. The LME statement also confirms that the Bank of England has approved LME Clear's application as a central counterparty under the European Markets Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR). The regulators and central banks in France and Germany gave a positive opinion about the new development according to reports. LME Clear...
Partial closure of Xinfa smelter pushes up Chinese domestic aluminium by 4%
A Chinese smelter experiences partial closure due to technical faults which results in hike in the domestic price of the metal by nearly 4% this week as investors are desperate to compensate the deficit in supply. A unit of Shandong Xinfa Aluminium Electricity Group went offline suddenly due to a major electrical fault shutting down the 400,000 to 500,000 tonnes capacity unit according to Wednesday’s Shanghai Securities News. Investors immediately anticipated a shortage in supply in the near future thereby pushing up the prices. The most active aluminium futures contract in Shanghai saw a boost of nearly 4% on Wednesday with the price standing at 14,950 Yuan per tonne. The 400,000 tonnes unit is likely to remain shut for the next two months for repairs according to analyst Wang Chunhui,...
South Korea stockpiles enough aluminium
According to a SEOUL Scrap Monster report Public Procurement Service (PPS) of South Korea, the state-run agency has bought 5,000 tonnes of aluminum in last week via a number of tenders from traders. It is indicated that PPS has bought 1,000 tonnes of aluminum from the aluminium trader Glencore. The aluminum from West was procured at a premium of $234.9 per tonne over LME cash price on CIF delivery at Incheon port. Dreample is another winner of the same sell tender. It is also said that PPS to buy 1,000 tonnes of western-origin aluminum at a premium of $231.5 per tonne CIF over LME cash price. The aluminium will be procured at Incheon port. LG International won another tender for selling 2,000 tonnes of Indian-origin aluminum for delivery at Incheon and that is also to be procured at a...
Trimet increases recycled content in aluminium production
Recycling is becoming increasingly important to Trimet Aluminium SE as it is being converted into primary aluminium for further use. Since aluminium does not lose any of its properties upon recycling, it is the best metal to be used multiple times. Trimet aluminium already melts down 200,000 tons of metal scrap every year for re-use in the production plants. The company has two prime resmelting plants on Gelsenkirchen and Harzgerode and they are also using this recycled material in their foundry in Eden to prepare rolled ingots and billets. In this facility nearly 80,000 tons of aluminium scrap is remolded into primary aluminium products. Since recycling aluminium into its base form requires only 5% of the energy required than the bauxite-alumina-aluminium process, Trimet is increasing...
Rio Tinto soars even as Yarwun palnt prepares for annual shutdown
Rio Tinto has announced a 21% hike in earnings to 5.1 billion while its Yarwun alumina site in Gladstone prepares for its annual shutdown. Yarwun and Qal, which had both been affected in 2013 by the ex-tropical cyclone named Oswald, are doing much better with the first half results showing a 9% gain in alumina production. The challenges of refinery design and construction are constantly being addressed and the Yarwun production capacity is expected to reach its full capacity by the second half of 2015. Although the first half 2014 production is consistent with the production over the same period last year, the group’s this year’s underlying earnings for the first half was calculated at $373 million, 74% more than last year. The major difference in the earnings was caused by the greater...
China’s alumina imports rocket 97.78% YoY in July
China’s alumina imports rocketed 97.78% YoY to 463,200 mt in July. YTD imports through July also soared 71.55% YoY to 3.23 million mt, according to China Customs. Two factors were behind the impressive growth in import volumes. Chinese buyers increased imports as the FOB price of Australian alumina fell below USD 310/mt in July and out of fear that import prices might bottom out. Besides, capacity resumptions and expansions at Chinese aluminum smelters also boosted alumina demand.
China's Inner Mongolia to Produce alumina from coal ash
China’s Inner Mongolia will invest to produce alumina from coal ash, a waste of byproduct of thermal power generation, in its Jungar, Togtoh and Qingshuihe, local media reported. Jungar, a coal-rich region, is preliminarily estimated to produce 120 million tonnes of coal in high-Al content annually, and this will generate 30 million tonnes of high- aluminum coal ash. Such amounts of coal ash are expected to produce over 12 million tonnes of alumina, it added.
Aluminum leads metals higher on stimulus bets for China, Europe
Aluminum led most industrial metals higher as worse-than-expected manufacturing data in China and the euro area increased speculation of more economic stimulus. Aluminum on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 0.6 percent. China’s official purchasing managers’ index for August declined for the first time in six months while a private PMI reading for the euro area fell to 50.7 in August from 51.8 in the previous month, data released yesterdays show. A reading above 50 signals expansion. “The market started factoring in more stimulus,” Gavin Wendt, founder and senior resource analyst at Mine Life Pty, said by phone from Sydney. “In these sorts of market conditions, the release of bad news can actually spur the market because there’s the anticipation of certain stimulus.” A Markit...
Noranda Aluminum announces layoffs, other cutbacks after losing bid for lower power rates
Noranda Aluminum Inc. announced Tuesday that it is laying off up to 200 employees and suspending an expansion project at its southeast Missouri smelter because state regulators refused to lower its electricity rates. The cutbacks by Noranda come less than two weeks after the Missouri Public Service Commission denied its request for a roughly 25 percent reduction in electricity rates that it pays to Ameren Missouri. "It is heartbreaking to me to be forced to take actions that eliminate jobs, but these actions are necessary to help us remain competitive in the near-term," Noranda President and CEO Kip Smith said in prepared remarks for a press conference at its New Madrid aluminum smelter. "The long-term future of this plant depends on our ability to secure an affordable and competitive...
China’s Aluminum imports down 31.32% YoY in July
China imported 14,100 mt of primary aluminum in July, down 31.32% YoY and 4.08% MoM, according to China Customs. The SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio kept falling and dropped below 7.0 at the end of July, adding to import costs. In addition, aluminum premiums overseas are rising steadily, also unfavorable for imports. Japanese aluminum buyers agreed to pay premiums of USD 400-408/mt over London Metal Exchange prices for shipments in Q3, up 8-12% from Q2. Aluminum premiums for Japanese buyers are likely to show further slight increases for Q4 shipments since premiums for buyers in the US and Europe are expected to rise to USD 440-450/mt for Q4 shipments and demand from Japan remains strong. Japan is Asia's largest aluminum importer and the premium for aluminum shipments it agrees to pay each...
The tight supply pushes aluminium towards 18-month high
According to Reuters reports, the aluminium prices have once again reached close to the 18-month high on Tuesday, which has pushed up the Shanghai futures by more than 2%. The aluminium rate has edged quite close to the peak it had reached the previous week, the highest it had been since February 2013. The hike could possible be in lieu with the spiking demand and the worldwide shortage of supply. Ivan Szpakowski, an analyst of Citi in Shanghai expresses his surprise at the rate of increase in the aluminium prices and says that a lot of it is possibly driven by “CTAs (commodity trade advisers), momentum traders, and also macro trading on the more positive views of global economic growth” as opposed to fundamental factors. The prices will settle back to a lower number soon. The central...
Cape Alumina's Bauxite Hills unaffected by Queensland Government plans
Cape Alumina has revealed that the Cape York Regional Plan (CYRP), which was announced by the Queensland Government on 21 August 2014, will not affect the permitting or development of the company’s Bauxite Hills project. Cape Alumina will continue its development works for a Direct Shipping Ore project at Bauxite Hills. Substantial portions of Cape Alumina’s Pisolite Hills tenements are also outside the Strategic Environmental Areas and may have potential for future development. However, more work is required to determine whether those areas of Pisolite Hills which are not impacted by the CYRP may be economically developed. CBX plans to minimise further expenditure on Pisolite Hills whilst the focus remains on the Bauxite Hills project. The Bauxite Hills project, around 50 kilometres...
China’s Bauxite imports up 5.73% MoM in July
China imported 3.09 million mt of bauxite in July, tumbling 52.55% YoY, but up 5.73% MoM. YTD imports through July totaled 22.61 million mt, down 42.30% from a year ago, China Customs data showed. Small- and medium-sized alumina producers increased bauxite imports in July as their stocks on hand were about to run out. Malaysian bauxite gained favor as a better alternative to Indonesian bauxite in both quality and price. But low output and poor infrastructure have inhibited massive bauxite outflows from Malaysia. The Indian cabinet recently approved the increase of royalties on bauxite from 0.5% to 0.6%. Such move might prompt bauxite exporters in India to pass higher costs to Chinese importers. However, even if import prices of Indian bauxite rise, China’s appetite for Indian bauxite will...
China’s aluminum semis exports up 14.3% MoM in July
China exported 320,000 mt of aluminum semis in July, up 15.1% YoY and 14.3% MoM, China Customs data revealed. Extrusion exports increased 34.92% YoY and 4.32% MoM to 72,500 mt in July. Foil exports also grew 15.81% YoY and 12.73% MoM to 78,800 mt. Exports of plate/sheet and strip totaled 151,700 mt, up 5.86% YoY and 21.17% MoM. Falling SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio favored aluminum semis exports. Besides, Chinese aluminum semis has become more competitive internationally as rising premiums in the global market have left little room for overseas semis producers to cut prices.
Automotive industry relies on aluminium and multi-material solutions to lightweight vehicles
While aluminium is expected to be relied on heavily to meet new fuel efficiency standards for vehicles, multi-material solutions, engineering plastics and advanced composites will also play a key role, according to a WardsAuto survey sponsored by DuPont. CAFE standards 64% of the nearly 900 respondents said that the US 2017-2025 CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards) could get more stringent as a result of the upcoming mid-term reviews. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards require, on an average industry fleet-wide basis, 163 g/mile of CO2 in model year 2025, which would be equivalent to 54.5 mpg (4.3 l/100 km) if this level were achieved solely through improvements in fuel efficiency. The EPA in April released a report on vehicle greenhouse gas emissions that...
