When energy heavyweights, financiers and geopolitical policymakers convened at CERAWeek 2025, they confronted a truth too long ignored: the path to a net-zero future is being redrawn by geopolitics, national security imperatives and a resurgent fossil-fuel lobby. The publication titled ‘The energy transition’s disrupted path forward’ by S&P Global Commodity Insights, which gathers all the key points from the convention, it is clear that what emerges is not an orderly glide to clean power, but a fractured landscape where ‘energy security’ increasingly trumps decarbonisation. For industry leaders and investors, this realignment demands recalibrated strategies, deeper risk assessments and a readiness to pivot on both policy and market fronts.
Image for representational purposes only (Source: https://commodityinsights.spglobal.com/energy-transition-disrupted-path.html)
To set things straight, when we discuss energy demand, we are referring to all energy uses, including electricity, transport fuels, and fuels for heating and industrial processes. Our current energy system is entering a significant period of transformation. To address the threat of climate change, we must eliminate fossil fuels from the UK energy system by 2050. While energy efficiency has improved and demand in the UK has decreased considerably over the past decade, it is essential to continue and strengthen this trend. It’s important to note that electricity demand is only one aspect of overall energy demand.
The US vs China energy rewind: Abundance beats decarbonisation?
The incoming US administration has formally reprioritised ‘energy dominance’ over climate objectives. In this stance, the US-China competition, owing to various economic, security, and technological arenas, is at play, wherein energy is a prime battle indicator.
Natural gas, evidently a cornerstone of baseload generation, has moved towards fortifying expansion plans to power next-generation AI and preserve America’s technological edge. Bloomberg’s analysis confirms that global gas demand surged by 115 billion cubic metres (2.7 per cent) in 2024, its highest growth rate since 2019, which was led by fast-expanding Asian markets. Crucially for investors, this pivot signals sustained capital flows into LNG infrastructure, even as carbon rules relax. Those backing renewables must hedge against potential reversals of US clean-energy tax incentives and looming trade barriers on solar imports, which together could shave 10 per cent off projected capacity additions by 2035.
China has established a strong position in clean energy, driven by its goal of enhancing energy security and reducing reliance on imported fuels. The country now dominates key international supply chains for solar energy, batteries, electric vehicles, and critical minerals, rapidly increasing its exports in these sectors.
The Trump administration’s swift efforts to revamp US trade and energy policies are introducing new risks and uncertainties across various sectors. One key concern is the future of the US clean energy tax credits. Initially, there was a consensus that the Trump administration would not drastically alter the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits for emissions-free energy generation. However, indications from attendees at CERAWeek suggest that this consensus is beginning to wane.
Events
e-Magazines
Reports
Responses
