
The Financial Stability Committee of the Central Bank of Iceland anticipates that GDP to decline by 8% in 2020 as per its recent quarterly report. It notifies that while Iceland’s three commercial banks are in a strong capital and liquidity position, however, there is the risk that the Central Bank’s easing of policy instruments could lead to an increase in asset prices and an increase in the likelihood of systemic risk within the economy.

Following this obligation, the FSC has published its newest quarterly report, which forecasts that GDP will contract by 8% this year. The report notes that despite the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, Iceland’s financial system is “on sound footing,” with private sector balance sheets have grown stronger in recent years, reinforced by deleveraging and higher equity ratios.
In spite of positive measures taken by the Central Bank, however, the report also states that the pandemic has accelerated the contraction of the tourism industry and the reduced access to corporate loans from financial institutions, a trend that began last year.

The report further outlines some negative side effects that can be traced to the pandemic. The precariousness about Iceland’s foreign currency revenues; a drop in aluminium prices is considered among the major reasons for GDP shrink.
Over the past weeks and months, the Government and the Central Bank have responded to the crisis with the adoption of wide-ranging measures, including expanding access to credit and the lowering of financing costs.
These measures could help to rejuvenate the economy do not come without some risk, however: “The low-interest environment resulting from pandemic response measures exacerbates the risk of a debt bubble, either in specific sectors or in the broader economy, at a time when the financial stability policy stance is more accommodative than before. This could undermine financial stability in the coming term. It is therefore essential to take appropriate action if increased risk appetite leads to excessive credit growth when the impact of the pandemic tapers off and the economy starts to recover.”
Responses







