
Shanghai Metals Market found that this year the Chinese aluminium inventory cycle so far has lingered in a destocking phase for 25 weeks, as of Wednesday September 26. This has been the longest destocking period since 2007, which was first recorded in 2011.

As of Tuesday September 25, the social inventories of primary aluminium across major consumption areas in China had stood at 1.606 million tonnes, down 29.64 per cent from the peak of 2.284 million tonnes notched on March 12, 2018.
The primary reasons behind these shrinking inventories across China could be the production cut and shutdown of capabilities, SMM found. In March-August, Chinese smelters produced 18.31 million tonnes of primary aluminium, down 1.6 per cent from the contemporary period of 2017. In June-September, over 770,000 tonnes of annual capacities were closed and some smelters had suspended operations to undertake maintenance given high temperatures.
Besides, the pace of starting new smelters was slow as tumbles in aluminium prices kept smelters running in losses.
Meanwhile, the consumption of aluminium held stable this year. SMM research found that China consumed 17.782 million tonnes of primary aluminium in the first half of this year, slightly up by 0.9 per cent from the same period last year.
Although July-August is a traditional low season yet operating rate across downstream consumers did not register any sharp decline during the period. Operating rates in the primary and secondary aluminium alloy sectors nudged up in July while rates in the sheet plate/strip/foil, cable wire, industrial extrusions, and primary aluminium alloy sectors increased in August.
SMM expects that aluminium consumption will unlikely shrink in the coming time as well, especially amid a traditional high season in September-October.
Apart from alumina prices, this long destocking phase bolstered aluminium prices. Thus, so far this year, the most traded SHFE aluminium contract stood above RMB 14000 per tonne level for the first time.
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