China’s alumina production upticks in April 2024 annually banking on operation resumption in Guizhou and Guangxi

According to the Shanghai Metals Market survey, China’s metallurgical-grade alumina production in April 2024 amounted to 6.679 million tonnes, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.52 per cent from 6.782 million tonnes but a year-on-year increase of 2.2 per cent.

However, it is to be noted that despite the M-o-M fall in April’s monthly output, the daily production stood 3,900 tonnes per day higher than the previous month, reaching 222,600 tonnes per day.

Aluminium capacity and resumption

As of the end of April 2024, China’s existing alumina capacity was 100 million tonnes, with an operating capacity of 81.27 million tonnes, while the average operating rate was 81.3 per cent. In Shanxi, the operating rate grew by 2.7 per cent M-o-M to stand at 72.9 per cent and the operating capacity increased by 2.4 million tonnes, contributed by a refinery that recommenced its operations in mid-March and resumed two production lines in April after one production line suspension at the end of 2023 due to insufficient ore supply.

In Guizhou and Guangxi, alumina refineries’ operation rate regained 6.9 per cent and 1.4 per cent M-on-M to stand at 83.4 per cent and 85.8 per cent, respectively. In Guizhou, several refineries restarted in mid-March after production suspension, bringing the operating capacity increased to around 500,000 tonnes. The growth in Guangxi could be attributed to a refinery that recovered 24,000 tonnes of production capacity at the beginning of April.

Conversely, alumina operating rate in Henan fell by 3.3 per cent month-on-month to 63.1 per cent, caused by output cut at some refineries by around 550,000 tonnes due to insufficient bauxite supply.

Operating rate in Shandong and Hebei remained steady at 92.5 per cent and 88.7 per cent, respectively.

From January to April, China’s domestic alumina production totalled 26.443 million tonnes.

Short-term forecast

For May 2024, SMM forecasts China’s daily average alumina production at 224,300 tonnes per day and total operating capacity standing at 81.87 million tonnes, up 3.5 per cent Y-o-Y. This upturn anticipation is based on production resumption at a refinery in early May, boosting an annual production capacity of about 500,000 tonnes. An alumina refinery in Shandong will end roasting and maintenance in May, which may lift output.