According to the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) survey, as of August 21, 2024, China's domestic A00 aluminium ingot price has continued to increase by RMB 100 per tonne to officially close at RMB 19,590 per tonne. China's domestic A00 aluminium ingot price has risen for the fifth consecutive day in tandem with the increased price of the ore owing to tight supply and heightened demand.
Today, the average prices of A00 aluminium ingot are expected to range between RMB 19570 per tonne and RMB 19,610 per tonne, with spot contract to be traded at a discount price of RMB 100-60 per tonne.
China's low-carbon aluminium price has increased by RMB 85 per tonne to close at RMB 20,440 per tonne, marking a week-on-week increase of 3.09 per cent from RMB 19,827 per tonne. The price of high-purity aluminium (99.99%) has surged by RMB 100 per tonne, reaching RMB 26,700 per tonne. The average prices are estimated to range between RMB 26,300 per tonne and RMB 27,100 per tonne.
Region-wise analysis
Almost all the provinces of China, including Gongyi, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Shenyang, Tianjin, and Linyi, have unanimously increased by RMB 100 per tonne. With the latest rise, the A00 aluminium ingot price in Gongyi has settled at RMB 19,500 per tonne, while that in Wuxi at RMB 19,580 per tonne, in Hangzhou at RMB 19,590 per tonne, in Chongqing at RMB 19,560 per tonne, in Shenyang at 19,520 per tonne, and in Tianjin and Linyi at 19,540 per tonne.
Only Foshan has experienced an increase of RMB 90 per tonne to peg at RMB 19,490 per tonne on August 21, 2024.
Raw material prices
Among primary aluminium input costs, the price of cryolite has decreased by RMB 100 per tonne on August 21 after remaining restrained at RMB 7,000 per tonne since February 2, 2024. With the latest fall, China's cryolite price has come in at RMB 6,900 per tonne, with average prices likely to range between RMB 6,500-7,300 per tonne.
Aluminium powder price has inched up by RMB 0.10 per kg to peg at RMB 22.22 per kg. The average prices are estimated to range between RMB 22.1 per kg and RMB 22.3 per kg.
Aluminium alloy prices:
In line with the primary aluminium ingot price fall, the price of aluminium alloy (A356) and aluminium alloy (A360) have moved up by RMB 100 to arrive at RMB 20,050 per tonne and RMB 20,300 per tonne, respectively. In contrast, aluminium alloys (ADC12) price and aluminium alloy (A380) price have escalated by RMB 50 per tonne to peg at RMB 20,100 per tonne and RMB 21,150 per tonne.
Market analysis:
A key factor for the price rise of A00 aluminium ingot is the alumina shortage in China, which has pushed prices up to a five-week high. Moreover, the recent ban on Russian aluminium from LME warehouses and ongoing supply challenges suggest that the market will remain tight throughout 2024. The long-term outlook indicates further price gains, supported by a weaker dollar and possible monetary easing in the U.S. However, large aluminium inventories could temporarily cap price increases. The aluminium market's dynamics remain complex, but the balance of risks suggests upward pressure on prices over the remainder of the year.
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