Brazil has yet to tap its full aluminium potential, and the country must look beyond the domestic market and re-enter global trade, according to Luciano Alves, CEO of aluminium producer Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA). He said Brazil could lift production and expand its industrial footprint if the government recognises aluminium as a critical mineral.
Indonesia as a policy model
Alves pointed to Indonesia’s decade-long shift from raw bauxite exports to a refinery-led model as the clearest blueprint for Brazil to emulate. “[Indonesia] is a country that used to export a lot of bauxite, but about ten years ago made a decision to create mechanisms to encourage the construction of aluminium refineries and smelters domestically… They did that very well. Today, there are several new aluminium capacity projects underway in Indonesia.”
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This transformation has had global implications. The Indonesian model matters because it redrew regional trade flows, supported by Chinese-led investment and a mass build-out of refining capacity. Multiple new refineries are due by 2026, positioning Indonesia as Southeast Asia’s dominant alumina hub.
CBA’s green footprint and unused capacity
CBA operates with 100 per cent renewable energy and reports 2.8 tCO₂e per tonne of aluminium for Scopes 1 and 2. Alves sees this as a strategic advantage. The company plans a 40 per cent further emissions cut by 2030. CBA also has 50,000 tonnes per year (tpy) of idle capacity, which will return once Furnace Room 1 restarts.
A “green premium” is emerging, Alves said, “Customers in sectors such as beauty prefer low-carbon inputs. A product that is not green has more difficulty selling… While we have a competitive advantage and can charge more for being green.”
Tariffs, CBAM and shifting market flows
Alves said US tariffs have had limited impact because only 3 per cent of CBA’s output went to the US. “We’ve redirected it to Europe and Latin America. So we are fine,” he added.
The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is now shaping behaviour. “If you deliver the ingot by December, you don’t have the CBAM… everyone is more or less building up stock,” he noted. This has pushed CBA to shift its mix toward ingots, while diverting volumes from US clients to Europe.
Competition has intensified as suppliers locked out of the US redirect material to Brazil. Yet CBA’s low-carbon profile helps it differentiate. “This increased competition… is temporary,” Alves added.
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Premiums and price signals
The US Midwest premium has climbed to a historic high, driven by tightening inventories, with a US trader noting that “people are starting to look at these replacement costs.” By contrast, domestic price trends remain steady.
In Brazil, São Paulo premiums remain stable, with low VAT P1020A at USD 215–250/t, high VAT P1020A at USD 110–140/t and billet 6063/6060 at USD 520–570/t, reflecting steady regional demand. Meanwhile, Europe’s low-carbon differential holds at USD 0–20/t, a signal that buyers continue to favour established low-carbon suppliers despite limited explicit premiums.
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