Market research collated in early 2025 places the global aluminium scrap processing pipeline at roughly 38 million tonnes in 2024, with forecasts pointing to about 57 million tonnes by 2030 (a 7 per cent CAGR from 2024–2030). That projection is built on expected growth in automotive, packaging and building applications and on investments in sorting and remelting technologies.
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Image depicts recycled aluminium usage by end-user spectrum (Source: AL Circle Report)
Also read: 80% of waste, including aluminium packaging, goes into landfills in Greece
For context at the national level, U.S. Geological Survey Publications states that in the United States, recovered aluminium from purchased scrap in 2024 was about 3.27 million tonnes, of which new (manufacturing) scrap accounted for roughly 56 per cent and old (post-consumer) scrap roughly 44 per cent; old-scrap recovery equated to about 37 per cent of apparent domestic consumption.
According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global secondary (recycled) aluminium production in 2024 is estimated at around 33-34 million tonnes, accounting for roughly 35 per cent of total aluminium supply. The number has been steadily rising as more post-consumer scrap becomes available and primary producers optimise closed-loop production cycles.
By 2030, IAI and CRU Analytics project recycled aluminium supply could reach 42-45 million tonnes, helped by growth of end-of-life volumes from automotive and construction sectors, increasing OEM recycled-content targets, and regional incentives for low-carbon material footprints. AL Circle estimates 28.4 million tonnes of recycled aluminium to have been used in 2024 in various end-use segments like casting, canstock, pellet for steel and extrusion among others. With stringent laws spreading like fire across the globe, recycling has become not only a mandate but a survival strategy for most industry stakeholders.
The recently held session of the International Trade Council highlighted the central contradiction that aluminium and other metals are now caught in: the desire to secure domestic manufacturing strength versus the need to maintain open access to recycled material flows across borders.
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