Aluminium prices fell by 0.56 per cent and are settled at INR 249.15 (USD 2.99) per kg, where the fall is witnessed due to the weak manufacturing demand, irrespective of immense support from the supplies. As per the latest manufacturing Purchasing Manufacturing Index (PMI) by China's National Bureau of Statistics, another contraction month has been indicated, stipulating challenges in sustainable recovery in the world's top aluminium-consuming sector.
Concerning China's production, aluminium output rose by 5 per cent year-on-year, reaching 3.83 million tonnes in May 2025. The total year-to-date China's total aluminium output stood at 18.59 million tonnes, representing a surge by 4 per cent.
Concerning the global aluminium output, as per the data of Aluminium Institute, the year-on-year metric stood at 6.245 million tonnes, edging an increase of 1.5 per cent. This output shows a steady supply growth irrespective of the regional disruptions.
Aluminium buyers from Japan have secured a USD 108 per tonne premium for shipments in Q3, indicating a drop of nearly 41 per cent from the current quarter due to a decline in demand amid rising supply.
Additionally, Japan's major ports witnessed a rise in aluminium stocks by 3.3 per cent concerning the trading side, among which China exported 547,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and its products in May. It represents a month-on-month increase of 5.6 per cent, but concerning the year-on-year, the volume fell by 5.1 per cent to 2.43 million tonnes.
Aluminium stocks in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses have increased by 20,000 tonnes since June 25, where the current count has reached 356,975 tonnes. The cancelled warrants remained low at 12 per cent, which further spurs a limited near-term withdrawal.
On the contrary, the on-warrant stocks represented a hike from the start of the year, which is combined with both the warehouse of LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), which are still at a 60 per cent low if compared with the previous year of the same time span.
With the open interest dropping by nearly 4.52 per cent, indicating a lot of 4,098, aluminium is under long liquidation with the price going below INR 1.4 (USD 0.017). Support is witnessed at INR 248.4 (USD 2.97) per tonne, where the below mark is set to test at INR 247.5 (USD 2.96) per kg. Additionally, resistance is pinned at INR 250.3 (USD 3.00) per kg, with the potential push for the price could lead to INR 251.3 (USD 3.01) per kg in the near term.
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