The protectionist tariff strategy once touted by US President Donald Trump to revitalise domestic aluminium and steel production appears to be yielding the opposite effect - at least in early 2025. Industry indicators point to a clear downturn, with aluminium demand and production trending downward during the first quarter of the year.
Image credit: Aluminum Association
PMI signals early warning
The first signs of contraction came from industrial sentiment. Both the US and Canadian Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) dipped below the critical 50-point threshold in March 2025, registering at 49 and 46.3, respectively, indicating a shrinking manufacturing sector. Historically, a PMI below 50 signals a downturn in production and purchasing activity, which typically correlates with weakening demand for industrial metals like aluminium.
Demand contracts after 2024 rebound
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