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THINK ALUMINIUM THINK AL CIRCLE
Dr Deependra Singh, the former Chairman and Managing Director of IREL (India) Limited, a central public sector undertaking under the aegis of Department of Atomic Energy, Govt. of India, has clearly stated in this interview with AL Circle that India’s demand for critical minerals is set to rise sharply by 2040, driven by the country’s accelerating energy transition, industrial electrification, and digital expansion. According to Dr Singh, India’s mining concession rules would enhance domestic output and strengthen India’s positioning in the global critical minerals value chain. The new rules would drive faster capacity expansion through lease optimisation and boost exploration and investment inflows, explained Dr Singh.
Dr. Singh earlier worked as Director (Marketing) at IREL and Director (Corp. Planning & Business Development) at EDCIL (India) Ltd., with strong association in various projects under World Bank, OPEC and Asian Development Bank including prestigious projects of Central Govt.
AL Circle: Red mud, containing between 0.5 to 1.7 kg per tonne of total rare earth elements (REEs), is a significant byproduct of the alumina refining process. How much of this resource is being effectively utilised in India for REE generation? What strategies or technological advancements do you believe could substantially increase the efficiency and scale of red mud utilisation for rare earth extraction?
Dr Deependra Singh: The Current situation indicates that about ~8–10 MTPA red mud is generated per annum having REE content 0.5–1.7 kg/tonne. As on date, commercial REE extraction is ~0 per cent; the activity is limited to research and pilot stage for which NITI AAYOG has set up a committee way back in 2017.
Core Challenge
How India Can Unlock Value
AL Circle: The Government of India has recently amended its mining concession rules to allow the expansion of existing leases and licenses for critical minerals exploration. How do you anticipate these amendments to enhance India’s critical minerals output and the country’s position in the global market?
Dr Deependra Singh: The recent amendments to India’s mining concession rules represent a structurally significant shift from a restrictive licensing regime to a more facilitative, production-oriented framework for critical minerals. These changes are expected to enhance domestic output and strengthen India’s positioning in the global critical minerals value chain through multiple reinforcing mechanisms.
At the outset, the amendments directly address one of the most persistent bottlenecks in India’s mining sector - fragmented and underutilised mineral deposits. By allowing existing leaseholders to expand into contiguous areas (up to ~10 per cent for mining leases and ~30 per cent for composite licences), the policy enables more efficient resource extraction and reduces the need for fresh auctions and approvals. This not only accelerates project timelines but also improves geological continuity, thereby increasing the economic viability and output potential of existing mines.
In addition, the introduction of simplified and time-bound approval processes significantly enhances ease of doing business. Faster approvals reduce regulatory uncertainty and holding costs for mining firms, which in turn incentivises higher capital deployment in exploration and extraction of deep-seated and critical minerals. This is particularly important for minerals such as lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements, and nickel, where exploration risks and long gestation periods have historically deterred private investment.
Thus, the amendments are likely to drive (i) faster capacity expansion through lease optimisation, (ii) higher exploration and investment inflows, (iii) improved recovery and efficiency, and (iv) stronger supply chain security. Collectively, these outcomes position India to significantly enhance its critical minerals output and gradually strengthen its competitiveness and strategic relevance in the global market.
AL Circle: With the growing demand for critical minerals, what level of growth in consumption and production do you predict for India by 2040? Which industries do you foresee driving this demand and by specific percentage?
Dr Deependra Singh: India’s demand for critical minerals is set to rise sharply by 2040, driven by the country’s accelerating energy transition, industrial electrification, and digital expansion. In aggregate terms, India is likely to witness a 4–6x increase in critical mineral consumption by 2040, translating into an estimated 8–12 per cent CAGR over the next 15 years. This growth will not be uniform across minerals. Battery-linked minerals such as lithium, nickel, and graphite are expected to grow at the upper end of this range (or higher), while base transition metals such as copper and rare earth elements will see relatively moderate but still substantial expansion.
On the supply side, India’s domestic production is expected to grow meaningfully but at a slower pace than demand. With recent policy reforms—particularly the expansion of mining leases, improved exploration incentives, and the push under the National Critical Mineral Mission—India could achieve 3–5x growth in domestic production by 2040, with an upside scenario of 5–7x if execution remains strong and private/global participation scales up. However, given the current near-total import dependence for several key minerals (notably lithium, cobalt, and nickel), India is unlikely to achieve full self-sufficiency. Instead, it will evolve into a hybrid model—partially self-reliant in mining, but increasingly strong in processing, refining, and recycling, thereby securing a more strategic position in global supply chains.
India’s critical minerals landscape by 2040 will be characterised by demand outpacing supply, with consumption growing 4–6x and production scaling up 3–5x. The demand will be overwhelmingly driven by the twin engines of electrification (EVs and storage contributing ~60–65 per cent) and renewable energy (~15–20 per cent), reinforcing India’s emergence as a major global demand center and an increasingly important node in the downstream processing and supply chain ecosystem.
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AL Circle: Aluminum-lithium (Al-Li) alloys are becoming increasingly critical for reducing fuel consumption and weight in commercial aviation. How do you project the production and demand for Al-Li alloys to evolve in India over the next five years, especially considering the aviation sector’s sustainability goals?
Dr Deependra Singh: Over the next five years, the evolution of aluminum–lithium (Al–Li) alloys in India will be shaped by a demand-led acceleration anchored in aviation sustainability goals, while production will follow a more gradual, capability-building trajectory. The interplay between these two will define India’s position as a high-growth consumption market with emerging, but still maturing, domestic supply capabilities.
From a demand standpoint, the outlook is strongly positive. Globally, the aviation Al–Li alloys market is expanding at roughly 7–9 per cent CAGR, driven by the aerospace industry’s shift toward lightweight materials that improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions . This trend is even more pronounced in emerging aviation markets such as India, where rapid growth in air travel and fleet expansion is underway. Asia-Pacific, including India, is expected to account for a significant share of future aircraft demand, creating a strong pull for advanced materials like Al–Li alloys .
In the Indian context, this translates into a 10–12 per cent CAGR in Al–Li alloy demand over the next five years, implying that total consumption could increase by ~1.7–2.2x within this period. The primary driver will be commercial aviation, which will account for roughly 70–75 per cent of demand, as airlines increasingly adopt next-generation aircraft designed for lower fuel burn. Al–Li alloys enable ~8–10 per cent weight reduction compared to conventional aluminum, directly translating into fuel savings and lower carbon emissions . As sustainability commitments tighten—both globally and within India—airlines and OEMs will accelerate the substitution of traditional materials with Al–Li alloys in fuselage structures, wing components, and other critical applications.
Defence aviation will contribute an additional 15–20 per cent of demand, supported by India’s ongoing indigenisation efforts and modernisation programs, while space and advanced aerospace applications will account for 5–10 per cent, reflecting high-value but lower-volume usage.
Over the next five years, India’s Al–Li alloys market will be characterised by strong demand growth (10–12 per cent CAGR, ~2x increase), driven predominantly by commercial aviation sustainability needs, alongside moderate but strategic production expansion (~2–3x from a low base). India will remain import-dependent in the near term but will steadily build capabilities in downstream processing and component manufacturing, positioning itself as an emerging participant in the global Al–Li aerospace materials ecosystem rather than a fully integrated producer.
AL Circle: The production of critical minerals is responsible for 4 to 8 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Despite their essential role in energy transition technologies, what steps are being taken globally and within India to lower carbon emissions from this sector?
Dr Deependra Singh: The paradox at the heart of the energy transition is that while critical minerals are indispensable for clean technologies, their extraction and processing are themselves carbon-intensive -accounting for an estimated 4–8 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. In response, both global stakeholders and India are increasingly pursuing a multi-pronged decarbonisation strategy across the mining and minerals value chain, combining technology shifts, policy interventions, and circular economy approaches.
The global and Indian response to emissions from critical mineral production is converging around four key levers: (i) electrification and renewable-powered mining, (ii) low-carbon processing technologies, (iii) circular economy and recycling, and (iv) stronger ESG and policy frameworks. While the sector’s emissions are likely to rise in absolute terms due to surging demand, these measures are expected to significantly reduce emissions intensity per unit of mineral produced, enabling the industry to support the energy transition without undermining its climate objectives.
AL Circle: China is responsible for 95 per cent of global rare earth output and supplies a lion’s share to the world. To reduce dependence on China, India has launched many strategic initiatives. How successful do you think these efforts will be and within what timeline, given that India has been dependent on China for 90 to 93 per cent of its rare earth magnets until FY2025?
Dr Deependra Singh: India’s efforts to reduce its overwhelming dependence on China in the rare earths and magnet value chain are directionally strong and strategically well-aligned, but their success will be gradual rather than immediate, given the structural complexity of this sector. The reality is that while policy intent has sharply accelerated, capability creation in rare earths—especially magnet manufacturing—operates on long gestation cycles (5–10+ years).
At present, India’s dependence - estimated at 90–93 per cent of rare earth magnet imports until FY2025 - is not merely a supply issue but a reflection of deep-rooted structural gaps. These include limited domestic separation and refining capacity, negligible magnet manufacturing scale, lack of integrated value chains, and relatively weak downstream demand aggregation compared to China’s massive industrial ecosystem. Therefore, any assessment of India’s strategic initiatives must recognise that the country is effectively building an ecosystem from scratch, rather than incrementally upgrading an existing one.
India’s initiatives will be moderately successful in the short term, materially impactful in the medium term, and strategically transformative over the long term, with a realistic timeline of 8–12 years to achieve meaningful supply chain independence and global relevance in rare earth magnets.
AL Circle: What government-level policies do you think are still required for increasing the usage of critical minerals across the world, including India?
Dr Deependra Singh: The global push toward clean energy, electrification, and digital infrastructure has firmly established critical minerals as the backbone of future economic growth. However, while demand is accelerating, the policy ecosystem governing their production, processing, and usage remains uneven and, in many regions, insufficiently aligned with long-term transition goals. Both globally and in India, the next phase of progress will depend not just on increasing supply, but on creating a coherent, end-to-end policy architecture that stimulates demand, ensures sustainability, and de-risks investments across the value chain.
Increasing the usage of critical minerals globally—and in India—requires a holistic policy approach that goes beyond mining to encompass the entire lifecycle of materials. This includes stable investment frameworks, value-chain integration, recycling ecosystems, sustainability standards, and international collaboration. For India specifically, the focus must be on creating domestic demand pull, building processing capabilities, and securing diversified supply sources. Only through such coordinated and forward-looking policies can countries ensure that critical minerals truly enable, rather than constrain, the global energy transition.
