In seeking forward-looking insights into the impact of the Middle East crisis on Europe, AL Circle reached out to European Aluminium, given that 14 per cent of the European Union’s primary aluminium supply comes from the conflict region. Djibril René, Director of Industry & Market Intelligence at the Association, offered a valuable perspective on the current situation in Europe. According to Mr. René, the ongoing disruption in the primary aluminium supply chain is likely to drive the industry’s increased dependence on scrap. He emphasises the need for Europe to bolster its domestic aluminium production and recycling processes to address the looming metal availability crisis.

Djibril René joined European Aluminium in 2012 as a Senior Manager Sustainability & Economic Data, before being promoted to Director Industry & Market Intelligence. Prior to joining European Aluminium, he worked as a consultant in Paris and Brussels on environmental footprint and waste management. He holds a Master of Engineering in Agronomy from ENSAIA (Ecole Nationale Supérieure d’Agronomie et des Industries Alimentaires) and a Master of Business Administration from the IAE (Institut d’Administration des Entreprises).

Read the full interview to know Mr René’s views on the present state of aluminium market in Europe.

AL Circle: As of 2023, the EU’s aluminium imports from the Middle East accounted for 18.8 per cent of total imports. But now given the current geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, how is the EU adjusting its sourcing strategy? Are they actively seeking alternative suppliers?

Djibril René: Europe is indeed meaningfully exposed to the Persian Gulf for aluminium supply, particularly for unwrought ingots used by downstream manufacturers. In 2025, the EU imported around 1.4 million tonnes of aluminium products (HS 76) from the region, representing about 14 per cent of total EU aluminium imports and roughly 19 per cent of unwrought ingot imports (HS 7601).

In the short term, aluminium producers are closely monitoring developments and adapting their sourcing strategies where needed, including by seeking alternative suppliers where feasible. However, such adjustments take time and depend on market availability.

This underlines the importance of strengthening Europe’s overall supply resilience over time, including through a more robust domestic production and recycling base.

AL Circle: The growing price disparity between the Chinese domestic and global aluminium markets is incentivising Chinese producers to increase exports. With this in mind, does the European Union see this as an opportunity to diversify its primary aluminium supply, or are there strategic and regulatory barriers hindering such a move?

Djibril René: China’s growing export push is mainly focused on semi finished products (e.g., extrusions, sheets) and finished products (EVs, solar panels) containing aluminium. This raises serious strategic concerns for us.

As highlighted by the OECD, China’s aluminium sector has expanded massively over the past decades through state support, including subsidies and preferential energy pricing, leading to structural overcapacity. This excess capacity, which has started in the upstream part, has spilt over into semi-transformation, finished products, and aluminium recycling. This phenomenon, which started in China a few years ago, is also spreading worldwide (e.g., in Southeast Asia, often driven by Chinese investments), distorting competition and putting pressure on market-based producers, including in Europe.

Deepening our dependence on Chinese imports would only increase Europe’s exposure to unfair competition and an unreliable trading partner, while undermining the viability of its own aluminium industry. The priority should instead be to reduce vulnerabilities by strengthening domestic primary production, reinforcing recycling capacity and retaining scrap, and ensuring a more assertive EU trade defence instruments to address unfair market practices.

AL Circle: Global concerns over raw material shortages due to the Middle East crisis are already being raised by automobile and can manufacturers. Is the European aluminium sector experiencing similar challenges? What contingency measures is Europe taking to ensure a stable supply of aluminium in light of ongoing disruptions?

Djibril René: At this stage, we are not seeing widespread shortages in Europe, but the situation is putting pressure on sourcing, prices and increasing complexity for market participants, particularly in segments that rely on imports of primary aluminium. However, the current War in the Gulf creates more tension on the scrap market, and EU scrap leakage is likely to accelerate, with more material being diverted towards higher-paying international markets.

Reduced availability of primary aluminium from the Persian Gulf is expected to trigger global substitution effects, with increased reliance on scrap (HS 7602) as an alternative input. This will intensify global demand for scrap and strengthen the attractiveness of key markets (e.g. Asia for mixed scrap and the US for higher-quality scrap). At the same time, countries that previously relied primarily on primary aluminium imports (e.g. Türkiye) are expected to increase their demand for scrap, especially from geographically proximate sources such as the EU.

Finally, additional pressures are expected from third markets. For instance, the Middle East represents around 15 per cent (268 kt in 2024) of India’s scrap imports; if these volumes are disrupted, they are likely to be sourced from other regions, especially the EU.

In other words, it is more critical than ever for the EU to quickly implement a robust trade measure to address the accelerating leakage of aluminium scrap from Europe.

Otherwise, producers are adapting by diversifying sourcing options where possible and adjusting procurement strategies to manage increased uncertainty.

At the EU level, the focus is also on strengthening economic security and reducing strategic dependencies, notably through initiatives such as the Clean Industrial Deal, which aims to support the competitiveness and resilience of energy-intensive industries.

More structurally, Europe needs to reduce its exposure to external shocks by rebuilding domestic primary aluminium production capacity to pre-2021 levels, accelerating recycling, and ensuring that valuable aluminium scrap remains within Europe.

At the same time, a supportive policy framework is essential to ensure access to affordable and stable energy, which remains a key condition for maintaining and restarting production capacity. Strengthening EU trade instruments to address unfair practices also plays an essential role in ensuring a stable and competitive market environment.

AL Circle: The Middle East crisis has intensified energy price volatility. How do you think this will impact aluminium production further in Europe? Are producers exploring alternative energy sources to mitigate these rising costs?

Djibril René: Energy is a key cost component in aluminium production, and recent developments are already having a tangible impact. Since the escalation of the conflict, European gas prices have increased from around EUR 30/MWh to approximately EUR 50/MWh, with peaks above EUR 60/MWh, representing an increase of over 60 per cent. As gas often sets the price of electricity in Europe, wholesale electricity prices in major EU markets have also increased by around 20–30 per cent, currently ranging between EUR 80 and EUR 130/MWh.

For an energy-intensive sector such as aluminium, these fluctuations translate into higher production costs and increased pressure on competitiveness. This can influence production decisions, particularly for primary aluminium but also for semis producers and recyclers, where margins are highly sensitive to energy prices.

Producers are working to improve energy efficiency and increase the use of renewable and low-carbon energy sources, but these are structural changes that take time and cannot offset short-term price volatility. Moreover, the availability of renewable and low-carbon energy is largely determined by the local grid mix.

This underlines that access to affordable and stable energy remains the key condition for maintaining and restarting production capacity in Europe.

AL Circle: From February 27 to March 19, the European aluminium unpaid duty premium on LME surged from USD 291.75 to USD 375 per tonne, reflecting the impact of the geopolitical turmoil. How is this price volatility influencing aluminium imports into the EU? Are these price fluctuations already affecting the cost and availability of aluminium in the European market?

Djibril René: The recent increase in premiums reflects tighter market conditions and growing uncertainty following geopolitical tensions.

Higher premiums are translating into increased input costs for European importers and downstream industries, adding pressure across the value chain, particularly in sectors such as automotive, construction and packaging.

In practical terms, this evolving market can influence sourcing decisions, as importers reassess supply options and contract terms in response to changing cost conditions. This can lead to more cautious purchasing behaviour and ultimately affect the aluminium demand in key markets.

While we do not speculate on future price developments, the current environment is clearly contributing to higher costs and increased uncertainty in the European aluminium market.

AL Circle: The uptick in LME aluminium prices through 2025 had provided a boost to producers' earnings. However, taking the broader market into account, do you believe that this price increase is beneficial in the long term for the aluminium industry as a whole, or could it create potential market instability and long-term consequences?

Djibril René: While higher LME prices can in theory support revenues for metal producers, in Europe this effect is often limited by high and volatile energy costs. At the same time, for downstream industries, aluminium is an input cost, so rising prices and premiums translate directly into higher production costs, often with limited ability to pass these on. More importantly, volatility—both in metal prices and energy = creates uncertainty, making it harder for companies across the value chain to plan, invest, manage risk and can ultimately affect the aluminium demand. Stability and predictability are essential for the long-term resilience of the European aluminium sector.

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