Allison Ju brings extensive expertise across the entire aluminum industry value chain, delivering comprehensive analysis on supply, demand, costs, and regulatory developments, while maintaining close engagement with leading aluminum producers globally.

In an interview for ALuminium China 2025 & Beyond, Allison Ju discussed China’s 2025 aluminium price trends, the impact of trade policies and tariffs on downstream segments, strategies for inventory management and key drivers of domestic demand including NEVs, high-voltage transmission and consumer appliances. She also highlighted the rising role of imports and recycled aluminium in balancing domestic supply constraints.

AL Circle: With aluminium demand in China showing consistent growth, do you expect this upward trend to persist despite ongoing geopolitical tensions?

Allison Ju: In the short term, we believe that China’s aluminium demand remains resilient, mainly because aluminium serves a wide range of downstream sectors. Among them, the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment continues to show positive growth and will likely support future demand. In addition, government subsidies for home appliances and other durable consumer goods are still in place, which helps boost aluminium consumption to some extent. 

From the perspective of geopolitics and tariff tensions, China remains a major player in global aluminium supply. In the short run, it’s difficult to find alternative sources that can replace Chinese aluminium exports. Given that China’s direct aluminium exports to the US are relatively small, and that incremental demand is primarily driven by markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, we believe the trade war’s impact on China’s aluminium exports remains limited. Therefore, we believe the overall impact of the trade war on China’s aluminium exports is relatively limited. 

Looking ahead, as domestic demand from the new energy sector gradually slows, and emerging sectors like low-altitude economies contribute only modest aluminium demand, we expect the overall growth rate of China’s aluminium consumption to also moderate in the long run.

AL Circle: As China approaches its annual production cap of 45 million tonnes, do you foresee the country becoming increasingly reliant on aluminium imports? 

Allison Ju: Domestic operating capacity is already near its upper limit, leaving little room for incremental growth in primary aluminium output. At the same time, domestic demand remains resilient. In the first half of 2025, China’s net aluminium imports exceeded expectations, with much of the increase coming from Russia. Despite certain overseas restrictions, this further underscores the strength of China’s internal demand. 

Looking ahead, the share of imports is expected to rise moderately. The structure of import sources will depend on the global policy environment and price differentials. At the same time, carbon neutrality goals and ESG requirements are accelerating the shift toward recycled aluminium. Improved utilisation rates of domestic secondary aluminium capacity may help offset part of the reliance on primary aluminium imports.

AL Circle: In your view, what long-term impact will the US aluminium tariffs have on China’s aluminium industry? 

Allison Ju: The US has raised tariffs on all imported aluminium to a uniform rate of 50 per cent. Combined with earlier antidumping, countervailing duties, and Section 301 tariffs, the total effective tariff on some Chinese semi-finished aluminium products exported to the US now exceeds 150 per cent. However, as direct exports to the US account for less than 4 per cent of China’s total aluminium product exports, the short-term impact on overall industry profitability is limited. 

To bypass trade barriers, Chinese companies have in recent years adopted strategies such as reprocessing in ASEAN countries or investing in overseas diecasting plants (e.g., in Mexico), enabling indirect exports to the US. If the US introduces broader “reciprocal tariffs” in the future, this route may be constrained, requiring a reassessment and optimisation of global supply chain layouts. 

In the long term, with limited new primary aluminium capacity globally, US downstream manufacturers may struggle to escape high-cost supply chains. In contrast, Chinese aluminium products—supported by economies of scale, cost advantages and product diversity—are still well positioned to maintain export competitiveness. The key for the industry will be to continue upgrading to higher value-added products and expanding the share of green, recycled aluminium to mitigate risks associated with overreliance on any single export market.

To explore the full interview and gain deeper insights into China’s aluminium market, click here.