Supplies of thermal coal in Indonesia may face a shortage during October-December, several Chinese and Indonesian traders have warned, noting that some major coal producers in Indonesia have already sold out most of their cargoes scheduled for delivery during the period.
Supply would be particularly tight for low-calorific value (CV) grades, including the most-traded 3,800 kcal/kg NAR, they said. These remarks came just after the end of Coaltrans Asia 2025 held during September 21-23 in Bali, where many participants expressed optimism about the Q4 performance, citing the support of seasonal heating demand from countries in the northern hemisphere.
Preliminary statistics provided by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) show that Indonesia only produced 509 million tonnes of coal in the first nine months of 2025, or 68 per cent of the country's annual target of 739 million tonnes.
Haryanto explained that the decline in production is inseparable from uncertain global market conditions, which would outweigh the influence of supply tightness and drag prices down. According to the official, the average thermal coal price in 2025 is expected to hover around USD 100 per tonne, far below that of USD 130 per tonne in 2024.
The domestic thermal coal reference price (HBA) for 6,322 kcal/kg GAR coal (TM 12.26%, Sulfur 0.66 per cent, Ash 7.94 per cent) – set by the ESDM – averaged USD 111.6 per tonne during January 1-September 15, compared with USD 121.48 per tonne for the whole of 2024. The latest HBA reading for this grade published on September 15 stood at USD 103.49 per tonne, up slightly from a four-year low of USD 97.65 per tonne recorded on July 15.
Despite the potential supply shortage from Indonesian miners in Q4, these sources highlighted a possibility of ample supply being held by Chinese traders, many of whom have signed long-term contracts with Indonesian miners.
That means that many Q4 cargoes will shift from miners to traders, suggesting that overall supply may remain in balance. More importantly, Chinese traders are unlikely to rush into spot purchases at that time, even as demand in China rise for steam coal for winter heating. Given this scenario, it is still difficult to say whether the Q4 market will perform any better than it does now, a Chinese trader explained.
On September 24, the market retained a bullish tone with active offers and bids. Offers for Panamax 3,800 kcal/kg NAR coal rose to USD 46-47 per tonne FOB Kalimantan, up slightly from USD 45-46 per tonne largely seen in the previous week. Deals were concluded within this range, with some transactions even exceeding USD 47 per tonne, sources noted.
Note: This news is published under the content exchange agreement with Mysteel.
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