The world's primary aluminium industry has wrapped up 2024 with an annual production of 72.758 million tonnes. Could it break the record of the previous year or surpass AL Circle's outlook? Of course, it did by 2.9 per cent from the earlier year's output of 70.716 million tonnes and by 1.05 per cent of AL Circle's projection of 72 million tonnes.
Until November 2024, the production volume was summed up at 66.622 million tonnes, meaning the remaining amount of 6.236 million tonnes was achieved in December alone, marking the highest monthly output ever. Month-on-month, the world's primary aluminium production in December recorded a rise of 3.3 per cent from 6.037 million tonnes, and on a year-on-year, it edged an increase of 3.02 per cent from 6.053 million tonnes.
The daily average output standing at 201,200 tonnes, the same as the previous month, indicates that one additional operation day in December drove the output higher. However, on a year-on-year basis, the daily production in December 2024 registered a hike of 3.02 per cent from 195,300 tonnes.
Who and what drove the uptrend in world aluminium production?
Definitely, China has been the main driving force as the world's largest primary aluminium producer; a consistent and significant rise was also seen throughout the year in Western & Central Europe, as well as in Russia & Eastern Europe. In December 2024, primary aluminium production in Western & Central Europe saw a monthly rise of 4.2 per cent from 238,000 tonnes to 248,000 tonnes and witnessed an annual increase of 7.36 per cent from 231,000 tonnes. In the full-year, the production amounted to 2.828 million tonnes, up by 4.24 per cent from 2.713 million tonnes in 2023.
In Russia & Eastern Europe, primary aluminium production in December clocked at 359,000 tonnes, marking a month-on-month increase of 2 per cent from 352,000 tonnes and a year-on-year surge of 4.06 per cent from 345,000 tonnes. For the full year of 2024, the output demonstrated a rise of 3.76 per cent from 4.016 million tonnes to 4.167 million tonnes.
The ease of energy crisis was one of the primary reasons for the primary aluminium production increase in Europe, coupled with increased profitability for producers driven by higher aluminium prices on the global market.
China's primary aluminium production rose 4.1 per cent year-on-year in 2024 from 41.67 million tonnes to 43.379 million tonnes, as per the International Aluminium Institute's data. The projection is 45 million tonnes by the end of 2025, reaching the volume at which the Chinese government has imposed a cap to control carbon emissions. So, it remains to see what impact China brings to the world’s primary aluminium production after reaching the cap limit.
In December 2024, China produced 3.726 million tonnes, up by 3.33 per cent M-o-M from 3.606 million tonnes and 4.5 per cent higher than 3.565 million tonnes a year ago. The country's production through the Q4 was 11.065 million tonnes, reflecting a Y-o-Y rise of 3.7 per cent from 10.670 million tonnes.
The regions that demonstrated otherwise
Amid the uptrend across the world, there are a few regions that demonstrated decline or restraint in 2024. For instance, in the Oceania region, primary aluminium production decreased by 1.11 per cent from 1.884 million tonnes to 1.863 million tonnes. In December, the output stood at 157,000 tonnes, down by 3.09 per cent from 162,000 tonnes.
In the Gulf Cooperation Council, primary aluminium production at the end of 2024 marked a limited growth rate of 0.64 per cent from 6.217 million tonnes to 6.257 million tonnes. In December 2024, the output was 531,000 tonnes, only 1,000 tonnes higher than 530,000 tonnes a year earlier.
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