WEEKLY: China alumina slips again as stocks rise; RMB 2,500-2,620/tonne seen near term

Domestic alumina spot prices edged lower last week, though trading activity picked up modestly.

On the supply side, China's operating alumina capacity stood at around 98.9 million tonnes per year recently. One Guangxi refinery with a normal run rate of 2.3 million tonnes per year curtailed another production line, bringing current operating capacity down to 1 million tonnes per year.

Separately, a newly commissioned alumina project in Guangxi has begun shipping finished product. The plant started feeding on September 21 and is now in a phase of quality optimisation and ramp-up, targeting full production next month at around 2 million tonnes per year. With industry margins compressing further, higher-cost operators face mounting pressure; coupled with recent weather-related disruptions in the north, expectations of near-term operating-rate adjustments are building.

As of last Thursday October 15, 2026, national alumina capacity utilisation rates averaged 82.23 per cent, down 0.82 ppt W-o-W. Tight domestic bauxite supply, eroding profitability, and the onset of the high-incidence season for heavy-pollution weather in the north have added to operating disruptions, with a handful of plants already tweaking output. Still, with Q4 term-contract fulfilment being the priority for most refineries, sector utilisation will remain elevated.

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Domestic alumina traders' inventories reached 7.06 million tonnes last week, up 46,000 tonnes W-o-W, extending the build. Smelters' raw-material stocks hit fresh highs. Logistics capacity normalized after the holiday, shifting some pipeline-in-transit material onto downstream plant sites.

Mysteel data show Chinese aluminum smelters consumed approximately 1.68 million tonnes of alumina last week, little changed WoW. The domestic operating aluminium capacity holds near 45.42 million tonnes per year; healthy smelting margins keep plants running close to full tilt, while winter-stocking needs lifted tender-buying interest among northern smelters.

Several northern aluminium smelters launched tender purchases last week, driven by freight volatility from heavy-pollution curbs in Shandong and concerns over potential supply cuts, prompting selective restocking. Meanwhile, as freely traded traders' inventories keep expanding, some traders remain inclined to offload metal at discounts.

Despite widespread margin pressure, most alumina refineries remain committed to steady output and supply security ahead of annual term-contract negotiations. Some downstream smelters see limited further downside in alumina prices and flag the risk of broader production adjustments, lifting short-term inquiry and restocking interest. Yet with the market still in surplus, the sellers continue to show a willingness to dump at lower levels.

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Furthermore, buyers also persist in their habitual price-squeezing approach, keeping both spot and tender transaction prices on a downward drift. Mysteel expects domestic alumina prices to stay under soft pressure in the near term, trading in the RMB 2,500-2,620 per tonne range.

Note: This article has been shared by MySteel and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.