Three months LME aluminium underperformed overnight after a rise in day's trading; SHFE likely to remain strong
The US dollar traded rangebound on Tuesday as investors awaited the latest interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve and the index inched up 0.01% to 98.066. LME base metals closed lower across the board on Tuesday. LME aluminium declined 0.6% and SHFE aluminium traded lower overnight.
Three-month LME aluminium reversed earlier gains to finish its trading day 0.61% lower at US$1,803.5 per tonne. The load-up of short positions primarily accounted for the decline. LME aluminium underperformed its SHFE counterpart recently, and is expected to trade between US$1,790-1,840 per tonne today.
As on July 30, Tuesday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1781 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1781.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1806 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1806.50 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 1907 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 1912 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock increased to 1023875 tonnes yesterday. Live Warrants totalled at 774650 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 249225 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1811 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) increased to US$ 2024 per tonne today from US$ 2023 per tonne on Tuesday.
The most-active SHFE September contract rallied as longs entered at a low of RMB 13,885 per tonne. It rose to around the 60-day moving average and finished at RMB13,930 per tonne, up 0.43% on the day. The September contract fluctuated to end a tad higher at RMB 13,915 per tonne overnight.
Despite an ongoing low consumption season, alumina supply cuts and an anticipated pick-up in consumption in September provided support to prices. SHFE aluminium is likely to trade between RMB 13,850-14,000 per tonne today, with spot prices in a discount of RMB 20 per tonne to a premium of RMB 20 per tonne.
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