SMM’s preliminary estimation suggests a 3.6% growth in China’s 2023 aluminium output

The Shanghai Metals Market data has estimated that China's domestic aluminium production in December 2023 would be around 3.56 million tonnes, reflecting a year-on-year rise of 3.5 per cent and a month-on-month increase of 2.06 per cent. For the entire year, the estimation is 41.5 million tonnes of production, seeing a Y-o-Y rise of 3.6 per cent.

In December 2022, China's aluminium production was 3.44 million tonnes, bringing the year's total output to 40.08 million tonnes. China's aggregated aluminium output in 2022 demonstrated an annual rise of 4.1 per cent, meaning the estimated production growth rate would be slightly slower than in 2022.

It is to be noted here that China's domestic operating aluminium capacity at the end of 2023 was about 42 million tonnes, up by 3.88 per cent from 40.43 million tonnes in 2022.

Production cuts in Yunnan province due to the dry season from November to May showed impacts in November by reducing monthly aluminium output but spared the last month of 2023. Addition of new capacities in some of the major producing regions could have offset the production in December 2023.

However, the volatile market condition, with the recent raw material supply crisis due to the fuel depot blast in Guinea, demands closer attention to the situation.